USDJPY and USDCAD Risks Shift Lower in Current Ranges

The US Dollar sell-off in January, particularly against both the Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar have shifted intermediate-term bullish themes for USDJPY and USDCAD to neutral.

However, the lack of any decent bounce effort, leaves the skewed risks for further losses for both USDJPY and USDCAD, which could see intermediate-term bearish shifts.

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A low-level consolidation below 114.65 initial resistance on Wednesday maintained negative pressures from the Tuesday probe below the recent low at 112.53 (down to 112.48, keeping negative pressures within the broad range environment into Thursday.

Although the mid-January push below 113.12 shifted the intermediate term outlook from bullish to neutral, the late January threat remains for a push below 111.32, which would see an intermediate-term bearish switch.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 112.48; break here aims for 112.03, 111.59 and maybe key 111.32.
  • But above 114.65 opens risk up to 115.62/63.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 111.32 and 118.65.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Downside: Below 111.32 sees risk lower for 110.00/109.76 and 108.51.
  • Upside: Above 118.65 aims higher for 120.00/10 and 121.69.

Daily USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart


Again, another significant break lower Wednesday (as expected) through support at 1.3103, reinforcing the Monday top structure, keeping the bias to the downside Thursday.

The previous break below 1.3077 neutralised the intermediate-term bull trend, switching to an intermediate-term neutral tone, and we again see risk into February for an intermediate-term shift to bearish (only triggered through 1.2996).

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3044; break here aims as deep as 1.3016, 1.3002 and even critical 1.2996.
  • But above 1.3130 opens risk up to 1.3183

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2996 and 1.3598

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3598 aims higher for 1.3837/59 and 1.4000/17.
  • Downside: Below 1.2996 sees risk lower for 1.2759, 1.2676/51 and 1.2457.

Daily USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

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