- Although the overall global financial market tone continues to shift from “risk off” towards “risk on”, the selloff in US Treasuries to higher yields has pushed the US Dollar higher into latter April.
- USDJPY continues to sit within an intermediate-term range, BUT with risk intensifying for an intermediate-term bull trend, signalled above 107.90.
- The USDCAD selloff in April through 1.2612 set an intermediate-term bear trend, but recent US Dollar corrective strength has eased the immediate bearish threat (only switching back to neutral above 1.2819).
USDJPY Consolidation theme, but risks skewed towards key 107.90
A solid tone to probe Friday to a new rebound high and reinforce the solid sideways consolidation seen through April, sustaining upside pressures from the early April push above the key 107.30 resistance (that reinforced an intermediate-term Inverse Head & Shoulders base), keeping risks higher Monday.
We see an intermediate-term range (seen as 107.90 to 104.54), BUT with strong bias for a bullish intermediate-term shift above 107.90.
- We see an upside bias for key 107.90, maybe 108.51 and 108.87, even 109.00.
- But below 107.21 aims for 106.59.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 107.90 and 104.54.
- Upside Risks: Above 108.00 sets a bull trend to aim for 110/48, 111.48 and maybe 113.75.
Downside Risks: Below 104.54 sees a bear trend to target 101.15 and 100.00.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
USDCAD Upside correction bias
A strong upside follow through on Friday above 1.2697 resistance, building on Thursday’s dip and rebound from new support at 1.2581 and last Wednesday’s rebound through the Bank of Canada Meeting above 1.2623 resistance, keeping risks higher for Monday.
The mid-April surrender of key 1.2613/12 support area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, BUT risk is now growing for a shift back to neutral above 1.2819.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2771; break here aims for key 1.2819, then 1.2848.
- But below 1.2714 opens risk down to 1.2629.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2445.
- Lower targets would be 1.2247 and 1.2000.
- What Changes This? Above 1.2819 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.2944 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDCAD Chart