USDJPY Slightly Negative; USDCAD Positive Bias in a Bull Trend


  • We reviewed the USDJPY and USDCAD FX rates here on 1st April with a positive tone for USDJPY and negative bias for USDCAD.
  • The immediate risks for both currency pairs have reversed in the past week or so, with the bias now for USDJPY weakness in a broader range and the USDCAD Forex rate positive within a bigger, intermediate-term bull phase.


USDJPY Bias stays lower

A probe lower again Wednesday after a significant selloff Tuesday below the firm 111.18 support level to reinforce negative pressures, having already rejected upside forces from the firm, early April push higher, to keep the bias lower Thursday.

We now see an intermediate-term range as 109.69/66 to 112.14, BUT with risk growing for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 112.14.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 110.80; break here aims for 110.51, maybe towards 110.00/109.99.
  • But above 111.39 opens risk up to 111.82/90.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 109.69/66 to 112.14.

  • Upside Risks: Above 112.14 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 69/66 sees a bear trend to target 108.47, 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00.

Resistance and Support:

111.39 111.82/90* 112.14*** 112.64* 113.07
110.80 110.51 110.00/109.99* 109.69/66*** 109.24

4 Hour USDJPY Chart


USDCAD Still a rebound bias

An erratic Wednesday Again, but building on Tuesday’s rebound from off of new 1.3277 support, to hold onto positive pressures from the early April advance, just keeping risks higher for Thursday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is growing for a shift back to neutral below 1/3246

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3378 and 1.3403; break here aims for 1.3446/49 maybe towards 1.3469.
  • But below 1.3277 opens risk down to key 1.3246.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3246 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3110 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3378 1.3403 1.3446/49* 1.3469/74/88* 1.3500
1.3277 1.3246*** 1.3206 1.3154 1.3114/10***

4 Hour USDCAD Chart



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