- The US$ has shifted to a more erratic tone into latter July from a more positive tone earlier in the month, being buffeted by global trade war concerns, rising yields, jawboning from Trump and a broader “risk on” move to US (and global) equity markets.
- When we last looked at USDJPY here on 16th July, we highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bull trend, which remains very much intact during the current correction phase, whilst holding above 110.28/25.
- With respect to the USDCAD currency rate, the market did produce a solid rebound after the early July corrective setback, but latter July setback has again eased the intermediate-term bullish trend, but we only see a more negative shift below 1.3063/61.
USDJPY
Immediate rebound bias intact above 110.74/68
A Tuesday rebound stall back from 111.54 resistance, but whilst holding above the 110.74/68 support area from mid-July and this week, we still see the risks back to the topside for Wednesday.
The early July push above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.
For Today:
- We see a rebound bias higher for 111.54 and 111.85/90; break here aims for 112.55/60.
- But below 110.74/68 opens risk down to key 110.28/25.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.39/55.
- Higher targets would be 114.73, 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
- What Changes This? Below 110.25 shifts the outlook back to neutral; only through 109.35 signals for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 111.54 | 111.85/90 | 112.55/60 | 113.14/18* | 113.39** |
| 110.74/68** | 110.28/25*** | 109.95* | 109.65* | 109.35*** |
4 Hour Chart
USDCAD
Positive theme still trying to resume
A dip Tuesday after Monday’s rebound effort from above 1.3105 support (from 1.3118), but we still see a positive tone, attempting to resume recent bull forces from early July, keeping the bias back higher Wednesday.
The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT we see growing risk for an intermediate-term shift to neutral below 1.2945.
For Today:
- Whilst above 1.3110/05 we see an upside bias for 1.3230/33; break here aims for 1.3290 and then 1.3302.
- But below 1.3110/05 opens risk down to 1.3063/61, maybe 1.3025.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.
- Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
- What Changes This? Below 1.3061 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3230/33 | 1.3290/3302 | 1.3351* | 1.3382/86** | 1.3437 |
| 1.3110/05* | 1.3063/61*** | 1.3025 | 1.3000 | 1.2945 |
4 Hour Chart