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End of the forex trading week in the spotlight

The forex trading week might have hit its midpoint, but there’s a lot to look out for in the second half of it.

Thursday sees a range of Chinese data points released. Imports for the month of July, for example, will be out at some unspecified stage. This metric is likely to show a change from -7.3% to -8.3% in a reflection of the ongoing trade battles between the country and the US.

Exports for the month of July will be out too, and it’s here that China’s unusual currency set-up – whereby the government sets the level of the onshore yuan – will be emphasised once again.

Exports for July when measured in the Chinese yuan are expected to show a change from 6.1% to 2.9%.

When measured in terms of the standard measurements used by the rest of the world, the year on year figure will show a change of -1.3% to -2%.

Initial jobless claims will be out of the US at 12.30pm GMT for the dates around August 2nd, and are now expected to show no change from 215,000, where they were previously recorded. Continuing claims are likely to reflect a drop, with the metric going from 1,699,000 to 1,690,000.

A speech from a major central banker will occur at an as yet unspecified time. Philip Lowe, from the Reserve Bank of Australia, will speak. It is possible that he will foreshadow what could be revealed in the Bank’s monetary policy statement, which is due at 1.30am GMT.

The day will be rounded off by what analysts expect will be a disappointing figure from Japan. The country’s preliminary gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2019 will be out at 11.50pm GMT and is expected to show a change from 0.6% to 0.1%.

On Friday, China will be back in the headlines as its consumer price index for July is revealed at 1.30am GMT. Year on year, this is predicted to show no change from its previous position of 2.7%.

The producer price index for the same period is likely to show a change from 0% to -0.1%.

The so-called safe haven of the Swiss franc will be in the spotlight at 5.45am GMT when the country’s unemployment rate for July will be out. This is expected to show no month on month change from 2.3%, which is where it was last recorded.

Britain’s preliminary gross domestic product figure for the second quarter of the year is due out at 8.30am GMT. In a sign of ongoing worries about Brexit and the country’s economic future, this metric is likely to show a shift from 1.8% to 1.4% year on year.

Quarter on quarter, it is expected to show a drop of an entire percentage point from 0.5% to 0.0%  – indicating just how much the country’s economic position has changed in recent months alone.

At lunchtime, Canada’s unemployment rate for July will be released and is expected to show no change from 5.5%.

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