Euro Set to Round Off a Difficult Month in Forex Markets

James West

The euro has declined about 1.2% over the course of the month, down in large part to question marks overgrowth in the Eurozone next year.

By some measurements, forecasted growth for the Eurozone in 2020 has gone down from 1.8% to 1.4%.

The European Central Bank has made several indications that it plans to pursue a low interest rate policy for the foreseeable future.

On the final day of the month, however, the EUR/USD pair actually posted some rises – with the pair going up marginally to $1.1228. However, it was the overall monthly figures which stood out for analysts.

Elsewhere, fresh worries over the outcome of Brexit pushed the pound down over 1%, leaving it a fifth of a percentage point down in the GBP/USD pair at $1.3013.

The US dollar looked ready to make significant gains as the impact of improved Treasury yields came through.

The US dollar index, which tracks the currency compared to a number of others from across the globe, went up to 97.217.

A new forex trading week will be on the horizon soon, meaning that a new series of economic calendar entries needs to be noted.

Monday will see a variety of data points out of Australia. The Housing Industry Association’s New Home Sales release covering February will come out at midnight. Month on month, it was last recorded at -1.8%.

The business conditions release from the National Australia Bank, covering March, will come out at 1.30am GMT. This is expected to show a change from 4 to 2.

Elsewhere, the UK’s preliminary core consumer price index will be out at 9am GMT. Year on year, this was last recorded at 1%.

Italian unemployment figures for February are also expected then. These were last recorded at 10.5%.

A purchasing managers’ index for the US Institute for Supply Management will be out at 2pm GMT, covering March. This is expected to show a change from 54.2 to 54.5.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision at 3.30am GMT. It is widely expected that the bank will hold this firm at 1.5%.

The overall European unemployment rate for February will be released at 9am GMT. This is expected to be held firm at 7.8%.

The European producer price index will also be out at 9am GMT. Month on month, this is forecast to change from 0.4% to -0.4%.

The Swiss consumer price index for March is due out at 6.30am GMT. It is widely believed that this will show no year on year change from its previous position of 0.6%.

At 12.30pm GMT, the US Census Bureau will release its nondefense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft). It is expected that the figures, covering February, will show a significant drop from 0.8% to 0.3%. The Census Bureau will also release its durable goods orders figures for February then. These are expected to show a change from 0.3% to -1.2%.

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