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The week ahead in forex: has the US attack on Iran affected the markets?

The new foreign exchange week is set to kick off today, and there’s plenty for people to keep their eyes peeled for.

Today (Monday), there will be a small number of key data releases, especially in North America.

Canada’s raw material price index, covering November, will be out at 1:30pm GMT.

This is set to show a shift from -1.9% to +1%.

Over the border in the US, a Markit services purchasing managers’ index for December will be out at 2:45pm GMT.

This is set to show no change from 52.2, where it was previously recorded.

By the time the evening comes around, the main release on the cards will be the NZIER Business Confidence from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

This is due out at 9pm GMT.

However, the main area of focus today is likely to be on the Japanese yen, which has risen in value over the weekend as investors look for security amid tension in the Middle East.

The killing of an Iranian general by US forces last week has caused the yen to surge to its highest point in three months – suggesting volatility is on the cards.

Looking ahead to tomorrow (Tuesday), Swiss consumer price index information for December will be out at 7:30am GMT.

Year on year, this is due to show a change from -0.1% to +0%.

Swiss foreign currency reserves data for December will be out at 8pm GMT.

Italian public deficit information as it pertains to gross domestic product, covering Q3 of 2019, will be released at 9am GMT.

Given the political struggles that have gone on between the Italian government and the European Union, this release is likely to be closely watched.

Information on Europe-wide retail sales for November is due out at 10am GMT.

This is set to show a year on year decline somewhat from 1.4% to 1.3%.

Preliminary core European consumer price index data for December will be out at 10am GMT and is due to show no change from its previous position of 1.3%.

Canadian imports and exports data for November is due out at 1:30pm GMT.

This will be followed at 3pm GMT by a factory orders release for November, which is expected to show a month on month change from 0.3% to 0.2%.

An Ivey purchasing managers’ index for December will be out at the same time, covering December in Canada.

This is set to show a change from 60 to 53.8.

On Wednesday, Australian building permits data for November are set to show a month on month change from -8.1% to +0.4%.

This is due to be released at 12:30am GMT.

Germany factory orders data for November will be out at 7am GMT.

This is set to show no year on year change from -5.5%, at which it was last recorded.

December’s Europe-wide business climate data will be out at 10am GMT and is set to show a change from -0.23 to -0.16.

This will be followed at 8pm GMT by a consumer credit change data release covering November.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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