The Euro/Swiss Franc currency pair (also referred to as EURCHF and EUR/CHF) is one of the most actively traded minor pairs in the world. In this article, we will examine how EURCHF is performing.
EURCHF Key Stats
- 2021 high: 1.1151
- 2021 low: 1.0326
- YTD high: 1.0611
- YTD low: 0.9971
- YTD % change: -2.39%
EURCHF Forecast
Given the current downtrend and economic instability, it is hard to bet against a further move lower in the mid-term. However, the ECB has signalled that rate rises are ahead, which could provide a near-term bounce off the lows. Nevertheless, we see the price in the mid-term moving towards 1.0000. However, given the potential near-term headwinds, a move back above 1.0200 will invalidate the move.
EURCHF Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is a great tool to help traders confirm a directional bias. Macroeconomic and geopolitical events will usually dictate the movement of currencies over the long term. Economic activity such as unemployment, consumer spending, retail sales, GDP, inflation, and much more will impact how a currency moves. Therefore, it is essential to understand the current factors influencing the EURCHF to determine its direction.
Over recent months, the euro has been a heavy talking point, with the ECB’s decisions causing much debate. Its interest rates have been unchanged throughout Covid, but the anticipation has grown for the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde said they are ready to ‘move faster’ on rates if needed. The expected EBC rate rise will be the first in over a decade due to soaring inflation.
The Swiss franc is considered a stable currency across the global economy. Due to its political and financial stability and its low-interest rates, it has been a desirable currency for investment, especially during times of worry in the global economy. Moreover, the Swiss Central Bank is known to take measures to control the currency’s value. The Swiss National Bank recently raised its interest rate for the first time in 15 years as it tightened its monetary policy to restrain inflation.
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EURCHF Technical Anlysis
Support Levels
- 1.0068
- 1.0000
Resistance Levels:
- 1.0331
- 1.0509
- 1.0609
Looking into the EURCHF technical analysis, we can see some key support levels, although the pair is currently at extreme lows. Level 1.0091 is the closest level to its current price and has been tested multiple times over recent months. Next is level 1.0068, which again has faced tests over recent months and remained strong. Finally, we have 1.0000 which is a key psychological level, and 0.9783, the lowest of the levels, which hasn’t been tested since 2015. The recent downtrend suggests 1.0000 could soon see some action.
As for resistance levels, first, we have 1.0331. This level looks strong both on a daily and weekly chart and has worked as both a support and resistance level in the past. Next, level 1.0509 looks impressive across the weekly chart. Price was unable to break in 2020 and has tested the level twice this year but has yet to break. Furthermore, level 1.0609 has also acted as a key resistance level and may be important if we see a bullish run across the currency pair.
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