As we head into April, assessing how the economy is fairing and what could shake up the forex market is important for traders. By keeping an eye on economic data and chart movements, we can get a better handle on what might unfold in the forex markets for the month ahead and what to watch out for. Here are some key aspects to keep an eye on in April:
- Comments from US Federal Reserve officials will be worth monitoring. The central bank maintained its forecast for three rate cuts this year, but they are monitoring the data, so comments on when rate cuts could occur will be important.
- One pair to watch is the GBPUSD, which has been hovering between 1.28 and 1.25 since late 2023. A break higher or lower could confirm a move in either direction.
- The German economy continues to be a key factor to watch in Europe, with forecasts for the country’s economy being slashed.
US Dollar
The US dollar started weaker in March, but it quickly turned around and has continued to gain over the last few weeks. However, there does seem to be a sense of risk-off sentiment coming into play with equity markets rallying, so potential weakness for the US dollar over the next month is something to be prepared for. Jobs data, inflation, and comments on potential rate cuts are key data points to watch.
Key Levels
- EURUSD: Higher – 1.0948, Lower – 1.0725
- GBPUSD: Higher – 1.2800, Lower – 1.2532
- USDJPY: Higher -152.00, Lower -149.00
Euro
After climbing to almost 1.10 against the dollar earlier in March, the euro has retreated and now sits just above the 1.08 mark. Given the struggles of Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, the euro is probably the currency we are most unsure on. However, according to The Business Times, while Germany is Europe’s sick man, “others are coughing” too. As a result, we are cautious on the currency into April. The EURGBP has been ranging for a couple of months and maybe a pair to assess for a potential breakout.
Key Levels
- EURUSD: Higher – 1.0948, Lower – 1.0725
- EURGBP: Higher – 0.8620, Lower – 0.8500
British Pound
The GBP against the euro, USD, AUD, and CAD has been somewhat rangebound for a few months, showing the resilience of the pound and British economy. The BoE recently said rate cuts are in play, while Governor Bailey provided a somewhat upbeat take on the UK economy. Any risk on sentiment should see the GBP push higher against the dollar in April, as what doesn’t go down…must go up?
Key Levels
- EURGBP: Higher – 0.8620, Lower – 0.8500
- GBPUSD: Higher -1.2800, Lower – 1.2532
Japanese Yen
In March, Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, marking a historic shift in the country’s monetary policy. However, things haven’t gone quite as planned for Japanese yen bulls, with the yen continuing to weaken against the dollar in March. In fact, the yen fell to its weakest level in about 34 years against the dollar this week. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki recently said they “will take bold measures against excessive moves without ruling out any options.” This has been interpreted as a reference to direct intervention in the currency market. As a result, traders should remain cautious when trading the yen.
Key Levels
- USDJPY: Higher -152.00, Lower -149.00
- EURJPY: Higher – 165.34, Lower – 161.75
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