The Euro/Norwegian Krone currency pair (also referred to as EURNOK and EUR/NOK) is an exotic currency pair. In this article, we will examine how EURNOK is performing.
EURNOK Key Stats
- 2021 high: 10.7043
- 2021 low: 9.8996
- YTD high: 10.6816
- YTD low: 9.4334
- YTD % change: +2.56%
EURNOK Forecast
In recent weeks, the EURNOK has pulled back from its highs after climbing to a level last seen around July 2021. The macroeconomic conditions in Europe for the Eurozone and Norway are challenging at the moment. Still, given the recent inflation data for the EA, we see a further pullback on the horizon for the pair, towards the 10.0663 level. In order for our directional bias to change, we need to see an easing of current macroeconomic headwinds in Europe and for oil prices to ease further.
EURNOK Fundamental Analysis
Developing a bias in the currency market is integral to a trader’s overall strategy. Investors are constantly entering and exiting the market; therefore, fundamental analysis using macroeconomic-related news such as unemployment, government spending, GDP, and inflation is essential.
Over recent months, the euro has been impacted by recent ECB decisions and has faced significant issues from the macroeconomy. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has been negatively affected after Russia’s halt to gas supplies heightened fears about a deepening energy crisis. As a result, the euro has had a significant inverse correlation with natural gas prices in recent months, and with energy prices rising, inflation has soared, sending the euro lower. Europe has attempted to break away from Russian supplies; however, it has been challenging for the economy. As a result, the ECB has begun raising rates and has continued to do so to combat inflation, which continues to rise.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Krone is mainly affected by oil prices and interest rates in the global market. Norway funds a significant portion of its budget from oil revenues because it is the leading oil exporter in Western Europe. Therefore, the surge in oil prices will benefit Norway’s economy. Furthermore, the krone has remained highly correlated to the Danish krone and Swedish krona. As for its interest rates, to combat inflation, Norges Bank has raised its rates considerably and is expected to raise rates further.
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EURNOK Technical Analysis
The EURNOK has been somewhat ranging over the last couple of years, and no clear direction, on a long-term basis has yet to be established. The currency pair is up so far this year after a recent bullish run. As a result, the price recently crossed above its 100-day moving average. A pullback may be on the horizon, and its 100-day MA would be a significant level to trade into.
Meanwhile, the pair has been trading between a few key support and resistance levels. A key resistance level at the top of the range includes 10.6812, its previous high and highest level for the EURNOK since 2020. On the other hand, at the bottom of the range is level 9.4461, which acts as a key support level. This level was reached early in the year and has been the lowest level since 2018.
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