Forex Market Forecast for March 2023

Nick Ranga

Forex Market Forecast for March 2023

The current talk surrounding the forex markets has been centered on recent data releases regarding easing inflation. However, the latest reports in Europe and North America have suggested central banks’ fight with soaring prices may not yet be over due to hints that the rate of price increases could remain stubborn. The familiar themes of last month ring true again in March:

  • Will the Fed continue to slow the pace of rate hikes, and will other central banks follow suit — this will be a central theme to watch in March.
  • If inflation remains stubborn, we may begin to hear talk of central banks sticking to their current rate hike path.
  • Unemployment will again be key — so far, the labour market in the US and Europe has remained robust. Still, with lay-offs in the tech sector continuing, it is essential to watch for a potential rise in unemployment.

US Dollar

Despite weakening at the back end of last year and into January this year, the US dollar has made solid gains so far in February. If inflation data remains hot, or at least stubborn, expect the dollar to continue to rise in March. In its latest FOMC minutes, Fed policymakers were optimistic about a decision to further slow the pace of rate hikes. Still, they also suggested that curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the “key factor.” Inflation everywhere remains the key data point to watch.

Key Levels

  • EURUSD: Higher – 1.0800, Lower – 1.0480
  • GBPUSD: Higher -1.2406, Lower – 1.1840
  • USDJPY: Higher – 138.00, Lower – 130.51


A resilient economy and jobs market accompanied by hawkish central bank rhetoric means a potentially stronger rate hike path for the ECB compared to what was forecast a month ago. As a result, the euro could rise against risk-off currencies during March. Deutsche Bank believes the ECB will raise rates by 50 bps in March and May, followed by a 25 bps hike in June, compared to their previous forecast of a 50 bps hike in March and a final hike of 25 bps in May.

Key Levels

  • EURUSD: Higher – 1.0800, Lower – 1.0480
  • EURGBP: Higher – 0.8960, Lower – 0.8680

British Pound

Similarly to the EU, recent positive data from the UK has boosted talk of further rate hikes by the Bank of England, which is positive for the pound. Positive economic data increases the likelihood of further hikes and could provide the GBP with a boost after a sideways move against most other major currencies in recent weeks.

Key Levels

  • EURGBP: Higher – 0.8960, Lower – 0.8680
  • GBPUSD: Higher – 1.2406, Lower – 1.1840

Japanese Yen

Despite strengthening from around October last year to mid-January this year against the US dollar, the Japanese yen retraced in recent weeks. BoJ board member Naoki Tamura recently said that the central bank is currently at a stage where it must closely monitor whether the country can achieve a positive cycle of rising salaries and inflation. If the rhetoric around further rate increases continues, expect to see the USDJPY continue to climb further in March.

Key Levels

  • USDJPY: Higher -138.00, Lower – 130.51
  • EURJPY: Higher – 144.25, Lower – 137.40

People Also Read:

Trade EURUSD with our top brokers

Broker Features Regulator Platforms Next Step
Number One Broker tickmill_logo-173% of retail CFD accounts lose money Founded: 2014
73% of retail C...
  • Well regulated
  • Ultra-fast and high leverage trading
  • Spreads as low as 0.0 pips
  • Comprehensive research tools
  • Relatively limited number of markets
  • Does not accept US traders
Blackbull LogoYour capital is at risk Founded: 2014
  • User-friendly platform with great trade-analysis tools
  • Leverage Up To 1:500
  • Spreads as low as 0.00 pips
  • Quality trade execution thanks to high-spec IT infrastructure
  • $0 minimum account opening balance
  • 26,000 tradeable instruments
  • Not available in all jurisdictions
  • Regulatory infrastructure
Your capital is at risk Founded: 2006
Europe* CFDs ar...
  • Multi-asset broker offering a wide variety of markets
  • Strong regulatory framework
  • Innovative risk management tools
  • Choice of market-leading platforms
  • Wide spreads on some markets
  • Expiry date on Demo Accounts
ASIC, FSA, FSB, MiFID MetaTrader4, Sirix, AvaOptions, AvaTrader, Mirror Trader
Between 74-89% of CFD traders lose Founded: 2010
Between 74-89 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs
  • Low trading costs
  • Great market flow
  • Research and analysis which helps spot trades
  • Wide range of Copy and Social Trading options
  • Limited range of non-forex markets
ASIC, FCA MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader
eToro Logo77% of CFD traders lose Founded: 2007
77 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
  • Social and Copy Trading Platform
  • Beginner Friendly
  • Risk-free Demo Account
  • Top-tier regulation
  • Limited means of raising queries
  • Withdrawal process isn’t really ‘client-focused’
ASIC, CySEC, FCA eToro Platform
XM LogoYour capital is at risk Founded: 2009, 2015, 2017
  • Low minimum deposit
  • Super- tight bid-offer spreads
  • Impressive trading platforms
  • Tier-1 regulators
  • Difficult to contact tech support
  • No Crypto
ASIC, CySEC, IFSC MT4 Terminal, MT4 for Mac, Web Trader, iPhone/iPad Trader, Droid Trader, Mobile Trader, MT5
FxPro LogoYour capital is at risk Founded: 2006
  • Very well regulated
  • Comprehensive education section
  • Fantastic customer service
  • No cryptocurrencies
  • Fees could be more competetive
CySEC, DFSA, FCA, FSB, SIA MetaTrader4, MetaTrader5, cTrader, FxPro Edge (Beta)

    Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.

    Nick Ranga logo74% of clients lose money. Capital at risk.

    - Trusted Global Market Leader
    - Online FX & CFD Trading
    - 180+  Global Markets, 84 FX pairs, 65 shares, 17 popular indices and more
    - Forex, Indices, Commodities, Equities & Bitcoin
    - Available to US traders

    Oanda Logo77% of retail CFD accounts lose money Your capital is...
    • Choose from four high-quality platforms.
    • Good trading conditions with fast execution speeds
    • Excellent research and analysis
    • Strong client protection
    • Winner of Most Popular Broker award for three consecutive years.
    • Fees and commissions are inline rather than market-leading.
    • Satisfactory rather than impressive range of instruments.
    eToro LogoYour capital is at risk

    - Trade 15 cryptocurrencies
    - Beginner friendly