Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 31st – January 4th 2013)

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 31st – January 4th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 31st

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
  • All Day NZD Bank Holiday
  • All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, January 1st

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (51.0)
  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
  • All Day GBP Bank Holiday
  • All Day CAD Bank Holiday
  • All Day USD Bank Holiday
  • All Day NZD Bank Holiday

Wednesday, January 2nd

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (49.2, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.2, > good for currency)

Thursday, January 3rd

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (49.6, > good for currency)
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (134K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (356K, > good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)

Friday, January 4th

  • 9:30am GBP Services PMI (50.4, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (0.0K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.3%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (145K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (7.7%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.3, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3224, 1.3251/92, 1.3308, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68 and 1.3614.

Above: 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.3187, 1.3126/65, 1.2990/1.3083, 1.2946, 1.2904/19, 1.2801/79, 1.2747/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89,1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91 and 1.2323/33.

Below: 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 86.63, 87.11/13, 87.95/99, 88.13 and 88.58.

Above: 92.14, 92.30, 93.76, 94.75 and 94.97.

Support:

Initial: 85.92, 85.51, 84.09/80, 83.85/96, 83.01, 82.53/82.83, 82.01/22, 81.68/96, 81.46, 81.14, 80.82, 80.56/67.

Below: 79.94/80.37, 78.83/79.20, 78.59, 77.00/78.28, 76.73/83, 76.02/41, 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6177/98, 1.6202/16, 1.6255, 1.6271/73, 1.6297 and 1.6301/08.

Above: 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:

Initial: 1.6130/51, 1.6109/12, 1.6083/96, 1.6077, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/06, 1.5975/90, 1.5961, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/90, 1.5825, 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50 and 1.5545/1.5601.

Below: 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5375/92, 1.5267/93, 1.5232 and 1.5123.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0392/95, 1.0418, 1.0458, 1.0470/98, 1.0508/28, 1.0566, 1.0572/84, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98 and 1.0842/54.

Above: 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0358/66, 1.0327/44, 1.0303/19, 1.0292, 1.0280/86, 1.0257/66, 1.0201/23, 1.0165/77, 1.0148/51, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83 and 0.9900.

Below: 0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9984/97, 1.0018, 1.0029/32, 1.0056, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249 and 1.0262/1.0311.

Above: 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9952/60, 0.9905/07, 0.9899, 0.9815/58, 0.9789/99, 0.9780, 0.9762/73, 0.9730/34, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631 and 0.9525.

Below: 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8201/04, 0.8221, 0.8237/87, 0.8307/54, 0.8365, 0.8395, 0.8405/27, 0.8472/74, 0.8504 and 0.8571.

Above: 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8172/95, 0.8121/53, 0.8078/0.8109, 0.8030/52, 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7906/66, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.

Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.