Weekly Forex Market Followup (June 18th - June 22th 2012)
Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of June 18th through June 22nd
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 18th through June 22nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, June 17th
- All Day EUR Greek Parliamentary Election results showed The New Democracy conservative party winning 29.5% of the vote, with 50 seats in parliament. Syriza, the anti-austerity party, came in close behind with 27.1%. PASOK, the socialist party came in with only 12.3%. Forming a coalition will be necessary.
Monday, June 18th
- All Day ALL G20 Meetings. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda stated, “I welcome the Greek people's wise decision. As for G20 discussions from now on, I'd like to particularly urge euro zone to strengthen efforts to prevent (its debt crisis) contagion to the rest of the world."
Tuesday, June 19th
- 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “Renewed pessimism about Europe and weaker economic data in other major countries had led to expectations of further declines in the Australian cash rate, with the market pricing in a reduction of at least 25 basis points at the current meeting, as well as further sizeable reductions over the balance of the year." The currency rose.
- 9:30am GBP CPI 2.8% versus 3.0% expected. The currency rose.
- 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -16.9 versus 3.6 expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.78M versus 0.73M expected. The currency fell overall.
- Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings. The resulting G20 Communique noted that, ““. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that, “The range of specific actions that are outlined by European leaders in the declaration are quite comprehensive and quite important, and if they're acted on in a timely manner will be quite effective."
- 11:45pm NZD Current Account -1.31B versus -1.16B expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, June 20th
- 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 8.1K versus -3.1K expected. The currency fell.
- 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote was 0-0-9, as expected. They noted that, “The Committee agreed that asset purchases remained an effective tool for lowering a range of market interest rates, supporting asset prices and so nominal demand. Nevertheless, a significant current impediment to the economic recovery in the United Kingdom lay in the interaction between the financial threats emanating from the euro area, their implications for bank funding costs, and consequently for lending to businesses and households."
- 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less." The currency rose overall.
- 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, “These assessments of the timing of the initial increase of the target federal funds rate and the path of the target federal funds rate are the ones that policymakers view as compatible with their individual economic projections."
- 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said that, “After a thorough discussion of those views and of the ongoing uncertainty and risks surrounding the outlook, the FOMC, as I mentioned, maintained its collective judgement that economic conditions warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate at least through late 2014 and it agreed to provide further support to the economy by continuing the maturity extension program."
- 11:45pm NZD GDP 1.1% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, June 21st
- 3:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 versus last 48.4 expected.
- 9:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.4% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 387K versus 381K expected. The currency rose overall.
- 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.55M versus 4.59M expected.
- 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -16.6 versus 1.3 expected.
Friday, June 22nd
- All Day CNY Bank Holiday
- 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 105.3 versus 106.2 expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Actual: Lower from a 1.2738 open to a 1.2525 close.
Actual: Mildly higher from a 79.92 open to an 80.53 close.
Actual: Lower from a 1.5733 open to a 1.5560 close.
Actual: Lower from a 1.0125 open to a 1.0044 close.
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0200 open to a 1.0264 close.
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7913 open to a 0.7892 close
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.
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