- In our last article on AUDUSD and NZDUSD from 10th September we had highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bear pressures but this theme has shifted through mid-September.
- A shift in sentiment has seen renewed global “risk on” forces, which has produced a rebound in both equity and Base Metals markets and also pushed the “risk currencies” higher.
- For AUDUSD, the September push up through the bear trendline from late August has seen a short-term base pattern and leaves risks higher into the second half of September, potentially up to a key level at .7382.
- Likewise, for NZDUSD, a short-term bottoming pattern has eased intermediate-term bearish pressures and leaves risks higher, with threat to a key level at .6721..
AUDUSD Recovery theme further reinforced
Another firm rally on Wednesday through the .7229/35 resistance area and to probe above the .7269 level, further building on Monday’s rebound from support at .7139 AND the prior basing efforts from last week with the reversal above down trend line from latter August, to keep risks higher Thursday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk remains for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .7382.
- We see an upside bias for .7303 and .7351; break here aims for .7362, possibly even towards key .7382.
- But below .7235 targets .7187 and maybe aims for .7139.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7382 we see a downside risk for .7000.
- Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
- What Changes This? Above .7382 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD Upside risks intact
A firm advance higher Wednesday above .6608 and .6616 resistances to build on Tuesday’s push through a recent peak at .6596 to build on last very short-term bottom and reversal above the down trend line from late August, to keep risks higher Thursday.
The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is mounting for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .6721.
- We see an upside bias for .6669 and then .6696, possibly towards key .6721.
- But below .6593 targets .6559 and maybe opens risk down to .6535.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6721 we see a downside risk for .6347.
- Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .67121 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart