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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bearish and negative themes resuming

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  • In our prior report here on AUDUSD and NZDUSD, we highlighted that the intermediate-term bear trends from early Q2 were under scrutiny, but subsequent AUDUSD and NZDUSD selloffs have maintained the intermediate-term negative themes.
  • For AUDUSD the setback from now key .7677 resistance has sustained the intermediate-term bear theme, with risk for an extension below the May cycle low at .7410.
  • For NZDUSD, we see an intermediate-term range environment defined by .6880 and .7095, but with risk skewed towards a surrender of.6880 for an intermediate-term bearish shift.

 

 

AUDUSD Downside threat

Another significant selloff Friday through .7474 and .7445 supports to build on Thursday’s plunge, fully rejecting the recent rebounds from the .7558/53 support zone and from the rally from late May, keeping the risk lower Monday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend, now with fading short-term risk for a shift to bullish above .7677.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the cycle low at .7410; break here aims for the important .7368/61 support area and even key .7331.
  • But above .7475/80 opens risk up towards.7566.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7677 we see a downside risk for .7368/31.

  • Lower targets would be .7155/41 and .7000.
  • What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7475/80* .7566 .7623** .7658* .7677***
.7410** .7368/61** .7331*** .7300 .7289

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 

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NZDUSD Bear threat

Another setback Friday through .6972 and .6959 supports as we had expected, to reinforce the selloff since Wednesday’ spike below our .6995/91 support area, keeping risks lower Monday.

We see an intermediate-term neutral range, now defined as .6880 to .7060 BUT now with risk for a push below .6880 for an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6913; break here quickly aims for the key .6880 level and maybe the .6849 cycle low.
  • But above .6995/7000 opens risk up to .7044 and then key .7060.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6880 to .7095.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7095 sets a bull trend to aim for .7273, .7395 and .7437.
  • Downside Risks: Below .6880 sees a bear trend to target .6849, .6781, .6676/64 and .6343.

Resistance and Support:

.6995/7000 .7044/60*** .7095* .7157/62 .7206*
.6913 .6880** .6849** .6823** .6780***

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

 nzdusd

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