- When we last reported on both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency pairs here on 7th March we highlighted negative outlooks for both Forex rates.
- Over the past week, however, previous US Dollar strength has faded with a broad weakening of the US$, as global financial markets have moved back to a “risk on” phase, with the US currency falling as the flight to quality move has receded.
- This has allowed both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates to rally, which for AUDUSD sets a positive correction tone within an intermediate-term bearish trend.
- While for NZDUSD the bias is to the upside within a broader, intermediate-term range, with risks for an intermediate-term bull shift (but only above .6942, see below).
AUDUSD bias remains positive
A dip and a rebound for a solid, inside pattern consolidation Friday after Thursday’s push above the resistances at .7092 to .7098 and a bounce from new .7039 support, to sustain the whole recovery theme from early March (from within the notable support area at .7000/6991), to keep risks higher for Monday.
The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see an upside bias for .7098; break here aims for .7117/21, possibly towards .7166.
- But below .7039 opens risk down to .7022, maybe towards .6999/91.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.
- Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
- What Changes This? Above .7207 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUD/USD Chart
NZDUSD holding on to a positive tone
A firm, inside pattern digestion on Friday with a dip and rebound to echo Thursday’s bounce from above .6786/80 supports (from .6805), to sustain the positive recovery theme from earlier in March off of .6743, keeping the bias to the upside Monday.
We see an intermediate-term range defined as .6716 to .6942, BUT now with a growing threat for a upside challenge.
- We see an upside bias for .6865/73, then the notable.6903/10 resistance area; break here aims for key .6942.
- But below .6805 aims for .6786/80 and maybe opens risk down towards .6743 and .6723.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6716 to .6942.
- Upside Risks: Above .6942 sets a bull trend to aim for .6969, .7060 and .7437.
- Downside Risks: Below .6716 sees a bear trend to target .6583, .6347 and .6195.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZD/USD Chart