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AUDUSD and NZDUSD Maintain Bear Trends and Downside Threats into August

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-30

  • In looking at both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency rates in our 19th July article here we highlighted ongoing bearish intermediate-term trends, despite the consolidation phases.
  • These bearish intermediate-term views remain intact.
  • For AUDUSD rebound efforts have been contained below .7484 and we maintain an intermediate-term bearish view through late July into August.
  • With respect to NZDUSD, the recent failure back from just below the .6858 level highlights a negative range theme through month-end and bearish extension risks into August.

AUDUSD

Negative theme intact

A lacklustre rebound Friday setting back from below the .7430 resistance level after Thursday’s recovery failure and selloff from below the key .7484 level through the up trend line from mid-July, leaving the bias for another setback Monday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7484.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7360/55; break here aims for .7315, then quickly to the .7308, the cycle low.
  • But above .7430 opens risk up to .7464 and .7484.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7484 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7484 switches the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7678 shifts the view to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7430 .7464* .7484*** .7566 .7597/00
.7360/55 .7315/08* .7265 .7209 .7200

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-07-30

NZDUSD

Downside bias

A probe lower Friday at .6765 support after Thursday’s rebound down from below key .6858 resistance that produced a bearish outside pattern through the up trend line from mid-July, leaving the bias lower Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6759 and .6743; break here maybe aims towards .6718/10.
  • But above .6819 opens risk up to .6851 and key .6858, maybe then towards .6900

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6858 we see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .6858 switches the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7060 shifts the view to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6819 .6851* .6858*** .6900 .6921**
.6759 .6743 .6718/10* .6693** .6676/64**

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-30

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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