- When on 10th December we last viewed the AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot FX rates we emphasised that for AUDUSD, the intermediate-term bull trend had been neutralised and highlighted a downside correction bias in a bull trend for the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar.
- For AUDUSD, the intermediate-term neutral theme has since been resolved to a bearish outlook, with the surrender of the .7161 level.
- Although the NZDUSD currency pair holds on to a bullish intermediate-term outlook, whilst above .6751, risks remain for a more bearish shift below this key support.
AUDUSD Downside bias intact, despite rebound
A rebound Tuesday to just probe above our initial resistance area at .7195/7200, but whilst stalling at .7204 we still see negative forces from last Friday’s plunge through key .7161 support and the mid-December rebound failure from .7247, to keep the bias lower Wednesday.
The mid-December plunge through .7161 now an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see a downside bias for .7149; break here quickly aims for .7170 and key .7161.
- But above .7204 targets .7247 and opens risk up towards .7276.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7077.
- Lower targets would be 7018/00 and .6827.
- What Changes This? Above .7276 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7394 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD Holding onto a negative tone (despite rebound)
A strong advance Tuesday through resistance at .6862, but stalling below .6893 ( at .6880), and whilst below .7880 leaving negative pressures from the mid-December selloff through supports as low as .6790 (to .6775) AND from the reversal below the up trend line from late October, to leave the bias lower Wednesday.
The early November aggressive surge above .6618 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is growing for a push below .6751, which would shift the intermediate-term outlook from bullish straight to bearish.
- We see a downside bias for .6806 and .6775; break here quickly aims for key .6751, then towards .6723/22.
- But above .6880 opens risk up to .6893 and maybe .6912 and .6930.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for be .7060.
- Higher targets would be .7437 and .7558.
- What Changes This? Below .6751 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bullish straight to a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart