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EURUSD and GBPUSD Sends Mixed Signals

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EURUSD risks just stay lower

A selloff and then a rebound Friday from below 1.1144 support (off of 1.1134), but whilst sill capped by 1.1219 resistance we still see negative forces last Wednesday’s rally and stall back from just above the 1.1262 barrier (from 1.1265) after the Fed decision, to keep risks lower for Monday.

The latter April plunge through 1.1175 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1144/34; break here maybe aims towards 1.1109.
  • But above 1.1219 aims for 1.1239 and opens risk up to 1.1265.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1324 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.1219 1.1239 1.1265* 1.1302/04 1.1324***
1.1144 1.1109 1.1081 1.1039 1.1000**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

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GBPUSD bullish threat to key 1.3196

A very aggressive advance Friday through multiple resistances including the 1.3130/33 area setback, rejecting negative pressures from the April break below key 1.2947 support, and despite erratic activity already this week, we see risks higher for Monday.

The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is now for a break above 1.3196 for an intermediate-term bull shift.

For Today:                                              

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3177 and key 1.3196; break here aims for 1.3269.
  • But below 1.3104 opens risk down to 1.3080, maybe 1.3021.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2771.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2437, 1.2366 and 1.2109
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3196 is needed to shift straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3177 1.3196*** 1.3269** 1.3311* 1.3331*
1.3104 1.3080* 1.3021 1.2986** 1.2937*

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

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