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EURUSD joins GBPUSD back in an intermediate-term range, with risks lower

eurusd

  • We last looked at EURUSD and GBPUSD here on 24th September and highlighted an intermediate-term bullish shift for EURUSD.
  • The subsequent EURUSD currency rate selloff has shifted the market back to an intermediate-term range theme, seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300, but with the current bias lower.
  • For the GBPUSD forex rate, the intermediate-term theme is still a range, we see as 1.3299 to 1.2894, but with growing risks for an intermediate-term bearish shift below the lower level.

 

EURUSD Bias stays lower

A consolidation tone Wednesday and more negative shift overnight through 1.1504 support to leave negative pressures from Tuesday’s selloff through key Inverse Head & Shoulders support at 1.1529/25, to keep the bias lower for Thursday.

The early October probe below 1.1529/25 shifted the intermediate-term outlook from bullish back to neutral, with the range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1464; break here aims for 1.1393.
  • But above 1.1540 opens risk up to 1.1594, maybe towards 1.1624.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1815 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1540 1.1594** 1.1625* 1.1685 1.1720*
1.1464 1.1393** 1.1355* 1.1300*** 1.1271

4 Hour EUR/USD Chart

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GBPUSD Intermediate-term bear threat

A negative consolidation tone on Wednesday and push below 1.2939  this morning, to leave downside forces from Tuesday’s surrender of supports at 1.2999 and 1.2979, PLUS from Monday’s failure from 1.3016, AND from the latter September plunge from 1.3299, to keep the bias lower Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.3299 to 1.2894, BUT with strong risk for an intermediate-term bearish shift below 1.2895/94.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2919; break here aims for key 1.2895/94.
  • But above 1.2977 opens risk up to 1.3023, maybe towards 1.3054.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.3299 to 1.2894.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3299 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3363, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2894 sees a bear trend to target 1.2784, 1.2661 and 1.2500.

Resistance and Support:

1.2977 1.3023* 1.3054 1.3116** 1.3164
1.2919* 1.2895/94*** 1.2811 1.2784** 1.2727*

4 Hour GBP/USD Chart

gbpusd

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