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EURUSD rebounding in a broader range; GBPUSD bull threat

eurusd chart

  • When last looking at EURUSD and GBPUSD here in our 11th February report we highlighted EURUSD downside risks in a broader range and the questioning of the GBPUSD bull theme.
  • Subsequently, Forex markets have experience US$ weakness since last Friday 15th February, driven by anticipation of a positive outcome to the US-Sino trade negotiations (US Dollar had previously been strong as a safe haven).
  • This has seen the EURUSD currency pair rebound from the bottom end of an intermediate-term range we see as 1.1214 to 1.1570, with the short-term risk back higher in the range.
  • For the GBPUSD FX rate, a selloff of on fears of a No Deal Brexit through key 1.2831/29 supports switched the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to neutral, BUT the subsequent rebound on renewed anticipation of deal being forged, sees the risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift again(only signalled above 1.3218).

 

EURUSD bias higher

A positive consolidation tone on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s strong rebound from 1.1274 through resistance that had previously capped at 1.1341 and also to probe above 1.1360, sustaining short-term positive pressures and keeping risks higher for Thursday.

We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.1214 to 1.1570, BUT with risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below the lower level.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1371; break here aims for 1.1402, maybe 1.1434.
  • But below 1.1301 opens risk down to 1.1274, maybe 1.1233.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1570 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1621, 1.1815 and 1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1268/62 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 108.39.

Resistance and Support:

1.1371 1.1402 1.1434 1.1488* 1.1509**
1.1301 1.1274* 1.1233* 1.1214*** 1.1200

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

 

eurusd chart

GBPUSD risks higher

A firm rebound Wednesday through 1.3077 and to probe at 1.3103 resistance, from a new support established at 1.3011, building on Tuesday’s surge through 1.2959, 1.2996 and 1.3052 resistances, reinforcing a positive tone within the broader, intermediate-term range, leaving risks higher into Thursday,

The mid-February plunge through the key 1.2831/29 supports set an intermediate-term range we see as 1.2668 to 1.3218., BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.3218

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3109; break here aims for 1.3169 and then maybe towards key 1.3218.
  • But below 1.3011 opens risk down to 1.2960, possibly 1.2890.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2668 to 1.3218.

  • Upside Risks: Above 3218 sets a bull trend to aim 1.3299 and 1.3473.
  • Downside Risks: Below 2668 sees a bear trend to target 1.2437 and maybe towards 1.2000.

Resistance and Support:

1.3109 1.3169* 1.3218*** 1.3236* 1.3258*
1.3011 1.2960 1.2890** 1.2830/25 1.2771*

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

 

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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