EURUSD stays bearish; GBPUSD downside threats

eurusd chart

  • When last reviewing  GBPUSD and EURUSD here on 15th November we highlighted an erratic GBPUSD tone and negative EURUSD outlook.
  • These themes are little changed, with EURUSD challenging the intermediate-term bearish outlook since the break below key 1.1300 support, but setting back from below important 1.1500 resistance to sustain bearish threats into late November and beyond.
  • For GBPUSD, Brexit indecision continues to see a broader, intermediate-term range, but with earlier November losses setting the skewed threat lower into late 2018.

 

EURUSD Downside risks

A plunge through 1.1378 and 1.1356 supports Friday to reinforce our negative view from Thursday’s rebound stall from just above 1.1425 resistance (from 1.1434), AND the prior plunge below 1.1393 and 1.1377 supports, keeping risks lower Monday.

The plunge through 1.1300 in the first half of November set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1320; break here aims for the 1.1262/51 area, maybe 1.1214.
  • But above 1.1360 aims for 1.1434 and opens risk up to 1.1472.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839
  • What Changes This?1500 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.1360 1.1434 1.1472* 1.1500*** 1.1550**
1.1320* 1.1262/51* 1.1214* 1.1166 1.1119**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD Still a negative tone

A setback Friday to reject Thursday’s sharp rebound (above the 1.2878/84 resistance area) that stalled from within our 1.2925/30 resistance zone, thereby sustaining bear forces from the aggressive mid-November plunge through numerous supports (notably 1.2826), to keeps risks lower Monday.

The early November push above 1.3044 set an intermediate-term range seen as 1.2964 to 1.3258, BUT with skewed risk for an intermediate-term bear shift below 1.2694.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2797; break here aims for 1.2762 and 1.2722 and maybe key 1.2694.
  • But above 1.2883 aims for 1.2928/30 and maybe opens risk up to 1.2994.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2964 to 1.3258.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3258 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3299, 1.3473 and 1.3608.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2964 sees a bear trend to target 1.2661 and 1.2500.

Resistance and Support:

1.2883 1.2928/30* 1.2994** 1.3072/85** 1.3129
1.2797 1.2762 1.2722** 1.2694*** 1.2661**

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

 

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