GBPUSD and EURUSD intermediate-term bear threats

gbpusd chart

 

GBPUSD Intermediate-term bearish shift

The Thursday break below 1.2894 has set an intermediate-term bear trend.

This has also reinforced prior bear signals since the mid-October plunge through 1.3081 to complete a Double Top, to keep the bias lower for Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2865; break here aims for 1.2811and maybe even 1.2784.
  • But above 1.2984 maybe aims towards the 1.3044, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2784.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2661 and 1.2500.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3104 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3299 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.2984 1.3044* 1.3104* 1.3129/49** 1.3236*
1.2865 1.2811 1.2784** 1.2727* 1.2696

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD Risks stay lower

A plunge lower Wednesday through supports at 1.1438/32/29 and maybe 1.1393 to reinforce Monday’s failure back from just above our 1.1544 resistance (from 1.1550) and down through 1.1484 support, to keep the bias lower Thursday.

The early October probe below 1.1529/25 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to neutral, with the range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300, BUT with growing risk for an intermediate-term bearish shift below 1.1300.

For Today:

  • We see a downside for 1 1.1378 and 1.1355, possibly to key 1.1300.
  • But above 1.1477 aims for 1.1507 and opens risk up to 1.1550.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1815 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1477 1.1507 1.1550* 1.1580/81* 1.1621/25**
1.1378 1.1355* 1.1300*** 1.1277 1.1251/50

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

 

eurusd chart

 

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