GBPUSD sees intermediate-term bearish shift with EURUSD still negative

gbpusd chart

  • We last looked at the GBPUSD and EURUSD currency rates back on 26th November and in that article highlighted an erratic GBPUSD tone with a skewed threat lower into late 2018 and a still negative EURUSD outlook.
  • These themes have been reinforced, with GBPUSD selling off through late November and into early December surrendering a key 1.2694 level, to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
  • For the EURUSD FX rate, the prior break below key 1.1300 support set an intermediate-term bear trend, and despite an erratic tone since then, recovery efforts have not managed to reject the negative outlook, which leaves risk lower for December.

 

GBPUSD Intermediate-term bearish shift

A rebound failure Wednesday down from below the 1.2840/64 resistance area (from 1.2798) to sustain negative forces from Tuesday’s push through key 1.2694 support, to leave risks lower Thursday.

The early December push through key 1.2694 support set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for key 1.2661; break here aims for 1.2613 and 1.2555 levels.
  • But above 1.2798 targets 1.2840/64 (which we would look to try to cap).

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2661 and 1.2500.

  • What Changes This? Above 1.2928 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3175 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.2798* 1.2840/64** 1.2895 1.2928*** 1.2994
1.2661** 1.2613 1.2555 1.2500** 1.2500**

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

 gbpusd chart

EURUSD Negative theme reinforced

A consolidation Wednesday of Tuesday’s rebound failure exactly from the 1.1419 resistance barrier, to reinforce downside forces from last Friday’s selloff through supports at 1.1373/61, keeping risks lower Thursday.

The plunge through 1.1300 in the first half of November set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1304/00; break here aims for the 1.1265/51 area and maybe the cycle low at 1.1214.
  • But above 1.1361 targets 1.1397 and 1.1419, maybe 1.1434.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839
  • What Changes This?1500 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.1361 1.1397 1.1419** 1.1434 1.1472*
1.1304/00 1.1265/51* 1.1214* 1.1166 1.1119**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

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