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NZDUSD and AUDUSD bear trends re-energized

nzdusd

  • Both the NZDUSD and AUDUSD bear trends have begun to re-energize in late June, as we had highlighted in our last report here.
  • NZDUSD has plunged lower in late June through the prior cycle low at .6822, reinforcing the already bearish intermediate-term theme from prior surrender of the .6880 swing low, leaving a bearish threat on into July.
  • For AUDUSD late June price erosion has seen a surrender of the cycle lows at .7345/43, re-energizing the intermediate-term bear trend and setting up for still lower price action through month-end into July.

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NZDUSD Bear extension

An aggressive Wednesday plunge through the cycle low at .6822 and the psychological/ option level at .6800, fully resurrecting the bear trend from the June surrender of the .6849 cycle low, to keep risks lower Thursday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6767; break here aims for .6755, maybe .6708.
  • But above .6833 targets .6858 and maybe opens risk up for .6900.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6780.

  • Lower targets would be .6676/64 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .7060 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6833* .6858* .6900 .6921 .6956**
.6767 .6755 .6708 .6676/64** .6647

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

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AUDUSD Bear threats

Again, and as expected yet another setback Wednesday to push below the cycle lows at .7345/43, reinforcing losses this week, resuming bear pressures from the mid-June plunge below the prior cycle low at .7410, keeping the risk back lower Thursday.

We see a re-energized intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7677.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7322; break here quickly aims for .7300 and maybe key .7289.
  • But above .7407 targets .7423 and .7454.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7677 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7407 .7423 .7444/54* .7475/80 .7566**
.7322 .7300 .7289 .7251 .7233

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

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