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NZDUSD and AUDUSD Bear Trends Under Threat

nzdusd chart

  • In our 10th October report looking at NZDUSD and AUDUSD we highlighted rebound risks within the context of intermediate-term bear trends.
  • The recovery and basing efforts across global equity markets since mid-August has encouraged a similar bottoming and firm rebound theme for NZDUSD and AUDUSD too.
  • The growing threat we feel into latter October, is for intermediate-term bullish shifts; NZDUSD needs to overcome .6608 for such a signal, AUDUSD only switches to an intermediate-term bullish outlook above .7315.

 

NZDUSD Risks quickly flip back to the topside

Initially a Friday setback below new .6532 support, but then a strong rebound from above .6510 (from .6521) to overcome .6579/80 and .6602 resistances for a bullish outside day, just stalling at our key .6608 barrier, but setting risks higher for Monday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend BUT under threat, with a shift straight to bullish signalled above .6608.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for key .6608; break here aims for .6640/45 and maybe towards.6696/99.
  • But below .6557/54 opens risk down to .6521.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6608 we see a downside risk for .6347.

  • Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .6608 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6608*** .6640/45* .6696/99*** .6721/27** .6749
.6557/54 .6521* .6510 .6492** .6479

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

AUDUSD Positive tone intact

A further setback into Friday as we had expected below the .7102/.7097 support area, but then a strong intraday rebound to reject Thursday’s setback and resume positive pressures from the October recovery effort and very short-term bottoming activity, to flip risks back higher for Monday.

We see an intact, intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7315.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7159; break here aims for .7175, maybe towards .7203.
  • But below .7087 opens risk down to .7066/64 and possibly towards the .7041/39 lows.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7315 we see a downside risk for .7000.

  • Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
  • What Changes This? Above .7315 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7159 .7175 .7203* .7238/41** .7268
.7087 .7066/64* .7041/39** .7000** .6969

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

 

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