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NZDUSD Sends Intermediate-Term Bear Signal as AUDUSD Stays Positive

AUDUSD Chart 2019-04-18

  • In our 8th April report here we highlighted “intermediate-term bearish risk for NZDUSD on a break below .6716, but a slightly positive tone for AUDUSD”.
  • The subsequent plunge in the NZDUSD Forex rate, driven by worse than expected New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, allowed for a plunge below our key .6716 level and for an intermediate-term bearish shift.
  • However, in contrast the AUDUSD currency pair continues to probe to the upside, reflecting a global improvement in risk appetite with equity averages hitting new 2019 highs, leaving the risks for the AUDUSD FX rate to the upside.

NZDUSD

Intermediate-term bearish shift reinforced

A Wednesday plunge lower (after the New Zealand CPI data) through .6726, .6711/03 and .6669, reinforcing last week’s prod below key .6716, sustaining the negative tone from the entire March-April selloff and leaving the bias lower Tuesday.

The April prod below .6716 was enough for us to set an intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6704/6695; break here aims for .6665 and maybe towards .6626/12.
  • But above .6748 opens risk up to .6782/83.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6583.

  • Lower targets would be .6347 and .6195
  • What Changes This? Above .6837 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6938 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6748 .6782/83* .6799/6800* .6837* .6875/76
.6704/6695* .6665 .6626/12 .6583*** .6542

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2019-04-18

AUDUSD

Upside threat still to key .7207

A firm Wednesday advance through .7192 and .7199 resistances to just stall at the key .7207 level, and despite a setback from here we still see upside pressures from the whole April advance through the Triangle resistance line, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT we see growing risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7207.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .7186/87; break here quickly aims for key .7207, maybe toward .7246.
  • But below .7137 opens risk down to .7113/07.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7207 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7186/87 .7207*** .7246* .7265* .7295**
.7137* .7113/07** .7085* .7050** .7039**

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2019-04-18

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