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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Stay Bearish

usdjpy chart

  • In our last report here on 16th August looking at USDJPY and USDCAD, we emphasised intermediate-term bearish views for both these currency pairs, which we retain.
  • USDJPY has seen a rebound into the latter part of August, but whilst contained by 112.16 we maintain an intermediate-term bear view (though immediate risks are higher at the time of writing).
  • The USDCAD intermediate-term outlook has been bearish since the late July surrender of the 1.3063/61 area, whilst negative, erratic consolidation in August has retained both the short- and intermediate-term bear themes.

 

USDJPY Upside correction bias, but intermediate-term bear view

A prod higher Friday into the 111.48/53 resistance area (to 111.49) to reinforce Thursday’s surge higher through the down trend line from July, plus 110.69/77 and 111.12 resistances, to keep the bias higher into Monday.

The mid-August surrender of 110.25 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.49/53; break here aims for 111.88, possibly towards key 112.15.
  • But below 110.71 opens risk down to 110.19, maybe 110.00.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 109.35.

  • Lower targets would be 108.08, 106.88 and maybe 104.54
  • What Changes This? Above 112.15 shifts the outlook straight back to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.49/53* 111.88* 112.15*** 112.55/60* 113.14/18**
110.71 110.19 110.00* 109.74* 109.65*

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 usdjpy chart

 

USDCAD Bear bias intact

A selloff Friday as expected to reject Thursday’s pop higher (above 1.3058 and to just probe at 1.3093 resistances), sustaining negative forces from last Wednesday’s probe through 1.2998 support, to keep risks lower for Monday.

The surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the 1.3004/00 and 1.2984; break here aims for the 1.2957/45 area, possibly towards 1.2917.
  • But above 1.3081 aims at 1.3103 and opens risk up to 1.3160 and 1.3176.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2814.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2725 and 1.2536
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3290 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3386 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3081 1.3103* 1.3160/76** 1.3191** 1.3247*
1.3004/00 1.2984* 1.2957/45** 1.2917* 1.2891

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad chart

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