
- A changeable outlook across global asset classes through June, driven by escalating trade war concerns, but in the Forex/ currency space, the underlying theme has remained for US Dollar strength against developed and emerging markets currencies
- In our last article on USDJPY on 25th June, we highlighted “an intermediate-term neutral, tone, but still with threat of an intermediate-term switch to bullish, signalled above 111.08” and the probe above here in early July has shifted risks higher for the month.
- For USDCAD, a recent setback points to the immediate risks as lower, but the intermediate-term bull trend is intact whilst above 1.2945.
USDJPY Rebound bias after intermediate-term bull shift
A dip Wednesday just below the 110.37/35 support area, but a rebound from 110.25 sustains the bull bias from Monday’s probe above the key 111.08 impulse resistance from May, leaving a rebound bias for Thursday.
The early July prod above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 111.13, then the cycle peak at 111.40, maybe 111.88
- But below 110.25 opens risk down to 109.95, maybe for 109.65
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.40/48.
- Higher targets would be 113.39/55 and 114.73.
- What Changes This? Below 109.35 shifts the outlook back to neutral; just below through 109.17 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
111.13 | 111.40*** | 111.88 | 112.27 | 112.79 |
110.25 | 109.95 | 109.66* | 109.35 | 109.17/14** |
USDCAD Downside correction bias
A prod lower Wednesday below 1.3126/20 support, to reinforce Tuesday’s setback and further dismiss Monday’s rebound and whilst below 1.3227 we still see downside pressures from the small Double Top pattern below 1.3256/55 support, keeping risk lower for Thursday.
The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, intact whilst above 1.2945.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.3107; break here aims for 1.3082 and maybe towards 1.3025.
- But above 1.3227 opens risk up to 1.3268; break here maybe aims for 1.3351.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.
- Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2945 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.
Resistance and Support:
1.3227 | 1.3268** | 1.3351* | 1.3382/86** | 1.3405 |
1.3107 | 1.3082* | 1.3025 | 1.3000* | 1.2945*** |
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