USDJPY intermediate-term bull shift, but USDCAD bull theme correcting

A changeable outlook across global asset classes through June, driven by escalating trade war concerns, but in the Forex/ currency space, the underlying theme has remained for US Dollar strength against developed and emerging markets currencies
In our last article on USDJPY on 25^th June, we highlighted “an intermediate-term neutral, tone, but still with threat of an intermediate-term switch to bullish, signalled above 111.08” and the probe above here in early July has shifted risks higher for the month.

For USDCAD, a recent setback points to the immediate risks as lower, but the intermediate-term bull trend is intact whilst above 1.2945.

USDJPY Rebound bias after intermediate-term bull shift

A dip Wednesday just below the 110.37/35 support area, but a rebound from 110.25 sustains the bull bias from Monday’s probe above the key 111.08 impulse resistance from May, leaving a rebound bias for Thursday.

The early July prod above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:

We see an upside bias for 111.13, then the cycle peak at 111.40, maybe 111.88
But below 110.25 opens risk down to 109.95, maybe for 109.65

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.40/48.

Higher targets would be 113.39/55 and 114.73.
What Changes This? Below 109.35 shifts the outlook back to neutral; just below through 109.17 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.13	111.40***	111.88	112.27	112.79
110.25	109.95	109.66*	109.35	109.17/14**

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

USDCAD Downside correction bias

A prod lower Wednesday below 1.3126/20 support, to reinforce Tuesday’s setback and further dismiss Monday’s rebound and whilst below 1.3227 we still see downside pressures from the small Double Top pattern below 1.3256/55 support, keeping risk lower for Thursday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, intact whilst above 1.2945.

For Today:

We see a downside bias for 1.3107; break here aims for 1.3082 and maybe towards 1.3025.
But above 1.3227 opens risk up to 1.3268; break here maybe aims for 1.3351.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.