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USDJPY poised into the Fed; USDCAD downside bias in a bull trend

usdjpy

  • We last reviewed the USDJPY and USDCAD Forex rates here on 11th March with a bullish outlook for both USDJPY and USDCAD.
  • Since then, the US Dollar has weakened against many major currencies, with expectations of a more dovish tone from the Fed at today’s FOMC Meeting, alongside global risk appetite returning, seeing the US Dollar weaken as an unnecessary safe haven.
  • The USD/JPY FX rate previously pushed through 111.41 to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bullish, but the bias into the Fed is slightly negative.
  • The USD/CAD currency pair has weakened in March with the softening US Dollar, with immediate risks still lower but within an intermediate-term bull theme.

 

USDJPY poised into the Fed

A setback on Tuesday below 111.36 support and although rebounding from above the better 110.98 level, we see risks now shift to slight negative tone in the March consolidation range, to set the bias slightly lower into Wednesday’s Fed Meeting.

The late February firm rally above key 111.41 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 111.13 and 110.98; break here aims for 110.75/63.
  • But above 111.90 opens risk up to 112.14 and maybe 112.64.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.71.

  • Higher targets would be 55 and 115.00
  • What Changes This? Below 109.66 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 108.47 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.90 112.14* 112.64* 113.11/18 113.71**
111.13 110.98* 110.75/63* 110.32/23** 109.93

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy

USDCAD risks stay lower

A spike lower Tuesday through 1.3283/72 supports to 1.3246, then an intraday rebound from here, but whilst below 1.3372 we still see downside forces from last week’s notable setback through various supports (including the 1.3151/48 area), to keep risks lower for Wednesday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3246; break here aims for 1.3206.
  • But above 1.3372 maybe opens risk up to 1.3417.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3110 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3064 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3372* 1.3417 1.3469/74/88* 1.3500 1.3567
1.3286 1.3246* 1.3206 1.3114/10*** 1.3064***

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad

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