USDJPY poised to shift bullish; USDCAD in an intermediate-term up trend

usdcad chart

  • In our recent articles on ForexTraders.com we have highlighted a shift back towards a “risk on” outlook for global asset classes, which has carried through into mid-June, helped by the positive outcome from the Trump-Kim summit.
  • In our article from June 4th, we highlighted upside risks for USDJPY, and the recent “risk on” moves have seen a USDJPY shift from intermediate-term bearish to neutral, with threat of an intermediate-term switch to bullish, but only signalled above 111.08.
  • Although early June has seen an erratic consolidation for USDCAD given trade war concerns, we still look for a resumption of the intermediate-term bull trend, to build on the prior bullish shift above 1.2944.

 

 

USDJPY Upside threat to key 111.08

Another firm push to the upside Wednesday to build on Tuesday’s rally through the 110.23/33 resistance area, AND last Friday’s rebound from above 109.14 support (off of 109.17), to keep the bias higher into Thursday.

The early June push through 109.83 shifted the intermediate-term view from bearish back to a range theme (111.08 to 108.08), BUT with skewed risk to the upside.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 110.85 and key 111.08, possibly towards the 111.40 peak.
  • But below 109.82 targets 109.42, and then maybe towards 109.17/14.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.08 to 108.08.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.08 sets a bull trend to aim for 111.40/48, 113.39/55 and 114.73.
  • Downside Risks: Below 108.08 sees a bear trend to target 106.85/59, 105.63 and 104.54.

Resistance and Support:

110.85 111.08*** 111.40/48** 111.70 111.12
109.82 109.42 109.17/14** 108.70 108.37/32

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 

usdjpy chart

USDCAD Still an upside bias

An erratic Wednesday, but still a positive tone after consolidation all this week, rebounding from above 1.2917 support (from 1l2951) and probing above 1.3040 resistance, to keep the bias higher for Thursday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3052, 1.3067 and 1.3076, maybe 1.3100 and the cycle peak at 1.3125.
  • But below 1.2951 targets 1.2917 and quickly aims for 1.2891.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3347.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2725 shifts the outlook to neutral; below 1.2536 sees a switch to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3052 1.3067/76* 1.3100 1.3125*** 1.3155
1.2951* 1.2917* 1.2891 1.2855/49* 1.2814**

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

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