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USDJPY Shifts Bearish; USDCAD Holds Onto a Bear Bias

USDCAD Chart 2018-08-16

  • When we last reviewed USDJPY and USDCAD here on 6th August, we highlighted USDJPY holding onto a bullish outlook, whilst USDCAD had shifted to bearish.
  • The USDJPY currency rate selloff in August probed below a key support level at 110.25 in mid-month, which shifted the intermediate-term view straight from bullish to bearish.
  • For the USDCAD Forex rate surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area in latter July shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
  • However, the rising threat for USDCAD is for a shift back to an intermediate-term neutral, range theme, but only on a push above 1.3290.

USDJPY

Bear bias intact

A prod higher Wednesday just above the 111.15/19 resistance area, but then a plunge lower to probe the 110.56 support, reinforcing the prior intermediate-term bearish shift early this week with the probe below 110.25 key support, to keep the bias lower into Friday.

The mid-August surrender of 110.25 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 110.42 and 110.08; below aims at 109.95 and 109.65.
  • But above 111.05 opens risk up to 111.43/53.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 109.35.

  • Lower targets would be 108.08, 106.88 and maybe 104.54
  • What Changes This? Above 112.15 shifts the outlook straight back to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.05 111.43/53* 111.88* 112.15*** 112.55/60
110.42 110.08* 109.95* 109.65* 109.35**

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2018-08-16

USDCAD

Upside risks

A surge higher Wednesday above 1.3120 resistance (as expected), to build on Tuesday’s dip and bounce from just above our 1.3037 support (from 1.3046), to keep risks higher for Friday.

The surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, BUT risk is growing for a shift back to an intermediate-term neutral, range theme above 1.3290.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3176; break here aims for 1.3191 and 1.3247.
  • But below 1.3091 aims for 1.3046/37 and maybe opens risk down to 1.2998.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2814.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2725 and 1.2536
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3290 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3386 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3176* 1.3191** 1.3247* 1.3290*** 1.3351*
1.3091 1.3046/37* 1.2998** 1.2957/45** 1.2917*

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2018-08-16

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.


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