AUDUSD and NZDUSD Corrective Upside Risks


  • The US Dollar is mixed across major currencies, erratic and indecisive, echoing global equity markets amid the start of a potential global trade war, with further tariffs imposed by both the US and China.
  • The late March AUDUSD surrender of .7710 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, But the near term bias is for a correction higher.
  • An intermediate-term range theme is dominant for NZDUSD, with the immediate bias to the upside, maybe to test key .7355 resistance.


Positive correction tone

A Wednesday probe above .7707 resistance and the down trend line from mid-March, then a dip and another rebound from above .7647/40 supports (off of .7660), easing negative pressures from the latter March selloff from .7758/64 resistance, shifting the risks higher Thursday.

The mid-March push below .7710 signalled an intermediate-term shift from a range theme to a bearish trend, intact whist below .7848

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7717; break here aims for .7758/64, maybe towards .7785.
  • But below .7660 opens risk down to .7647/40 and .7635.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.

  • Lower targets would be .7500, .7368/31 and .7155/41.
  • What Changes This? Above .7848 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7916 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7717 .7758/64* .7785* .7804* .7848***
.7660 .7647/40/35** .7599 .7550/43* .7500***

4 Hour Chart



Positive bias

A firm tone on Wednesday to build on Tuesday’s spike above modest resistance at .7248 with a push above .7271, for now rejecting downside pressures from the mid-March push through our key .7175 support level (for an intermediate-term Double Top), shifting risks higher Thursday.

We now see an intermediate-term range theme defined as .7151 to .7355.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 7303; break here aims for .7323, maybe towards key .7355.
  • But below .72370 opens risk down .7239, maybe then to .7184.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7151 to .7355.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7355 sets a bull trend to aim for .7558 and .7744.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7151 sees a bear trend to target .6951 and .6778.

Resistance and Support:

.7303 .7323* .7355*** .7386** .7411*
.7270 .7239 .7184 .7151*** .7140/38**

4 Hour Chart



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