- When we last looked at AUDUSD and NZDUSD here on 10th September we highlighted risks for intermediate-term bullish shifts and we retain this view into early Q4.
- Although very late September gains in the US Dollar aim both AUDUSD and NZDUSD lower in the very near term for early October, the intermediate-term risks into the month remain to the topside.
- For the AUDUSD currency rate, an intermediate-term shift from bearish to bullish still needs a push up to overcome a key level at .7382.
- For the NZDUSD FX rate, the equivalent key level is at .6721.
AUDUSD Risks stay lower
A negative tone again Friday with a reversal of the September up trend line and probe below the .7207 support (to .7199), then a lacklustre rebound effort which leaves downside forces from last Wednesday’s failure post-Fed (from our resistance at .7315), to keep risks lower Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk remains for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .7382.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for .7199; break here quickly aims for .7187 and maybe targets .7139.
- But above .7268 opens risk up to .7315.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7382 we see a downside risk for .7000.
- Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
- What Changes This? Above .7382 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| .7268 | .7315** | .7362** | .7382*** | .7412 |
| .7199 | .7187 | .7139** | .7083* | .7038 |
4 Hour AUD/USD Chart
NZDUSD Small Double Top reinforced
Another setback Friday to reinforce the small Double Top pattern last week through.6628 (after the spike higher after the Fed on Wednesday failed at our .6699 resistance at .6696), to keep risks lower Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk remains for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .6721.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for .6596/93 and .6559, maybe .6535.
- But above .6645 opens risk up to firm resistance at .6696/99.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6721 we see a downside risk for .6347.
- Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .67121 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| .6645 | .6696/99** | .6721*** | .6759/66* | .6798 |
| .6596/93* | .6559* | .6535** | .6497* | .6461 |
4 Hour NZD/USD Chart
