AUDUSD Bear Set Up into RBA Rate Announcement

Technical Analysis

Video Analysis 1

Video Analysis 2

On Tuesday 7th April at 3.30pm local time (04.30 GMT) we get the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision announcement. Although many commentators expect the cash rate to remain unchanged, there is growing expectation for a rate cut by June 2015, with risk of an earlier cut this week pointing to further Australian Dollar and AUDUSD weakness.

AUDUSD Technical Outlook Still Bearish 

A stall as expected, back from the trend line (.7670) and impulse resistance at .7701, having just nudged on Friday above the 38.2% retrace of the recent sell off at .7690 to leave a still negative tone into mid-April.

A new setback low to start Q2 reinforced the previous bear shift set up by the Weekly Gravestone Doji that still weighs and maintains a negative bias for April

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7609 and .7586; below here aims for .7533/30, maybe .7500.
  • But above .7670/951 opens risk up to .7744, which we would look to try to cap.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to the psychological/ option target at .7500.
  • Below aims for a key chart level from 2009 at .7267.
  • Through here even sees risk to the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2008-11 rally at .7095.

What Changes This? Above .7744 eases bear risks; through .7800/10 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7939.

Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower.

2 Hour AUDUSD Chart


Daily AUDUSD Chart


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