AUDUSD Bear Trend Under Threat; NZDUSD Looks to Shift Bullish

AUDUSD Chart 2018-10-31

  • We last looked at AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot currency rates here in our 22nd October report we looked at potential for rebounds and for intermediate-term positive signals.
  • Since then, these FX rates have dipped back lower, but then seen firm recoveries, which again sets risks for further gains into November.
  • The threat is for AUDUSD to shift from an intermediate-term bear theme to neutral, above .7159 (and even further out possibly to bullish above .7315).
  • For NZDUSD, above .6618 would see the intermediate-term outlook shift to bullish.


Still an upside risks for a base above key .7159

A dip and a rebound Tuesday from just below our .7049 support (from .7048) to push above .7106/09 resistances, to sustain a positive bias from Friday’s bullish outside daily pattern and positive Hammer candlestick recovery (from a new cycle low) to keep risk higher for Wednesday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT see risks for a push above .7159, which would see an intermediate-term shift to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7124/25; break here aims for key .7159, maybe towards .7175/77.
  • But below .7070 aims for .7049/48, which we would again look to try to hold. Below aims for the new .7018 low and possibly towards .7000.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7159 we see a downside risk for .7000, .6825 and maybe towards .6500

  • What Changes This? Above .7159 shifts the intermediate-term view to neutral, and only above .7315 to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7109 .7124/25 .7159*** .7175/77 .7203/09*
.7070 .7049/48 .7018* .7000** .6969

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-10-31


Bull threat again to .6618

A strong advance Tuesday after a rebound from new platform support at .6518, to push up through initial .6556 resistance and also .6567/69 swing peaks, to further build on Friday’s plunge and intraday rebound from below the key .6492 support (from .6461), to keep risks higher for Wednesday.

We see an intermediate-term range theme defined as .6618 and .6421, BUT with skewed risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift above .6618

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6573/83; break here aims for key .6618 and maybe towards .6640.45 area.
  • But below .6518 targets .6489 and maybe aims for.6461.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6618 and .6421.

  • Upside Risks: Above .6618 sets a bull trend to aim for .6696/99, .7060, .7437 and .7558.
  • Downside Risks: Below .6421 sees a bear trend to target .6348, .6195 and maybe .6000.

Resistance and Support:

.6573/83 .6618* .6640/45* .6680 .6696/99***
.6518** .6489* .6461** .6440** .6424/21***

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-10-31

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