AUDUSD Negative, but NZDUSD Positive

4hour audusd chart

Losses for the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar in early April and again since the Easter holiday have highlighted a negative tone for AUDUSD. This leaves risk for a more negative tone, particularly given the an intermediate-term bearish shift, previously signaled by the probe below .7487.

However, NZDUSD retains a more positive outlook through the middle of April, rejecting threat of a more bearish shift, which would only be triggered below .6867.

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A negative tone on Wednesday, reinforcing the Tuesday push down through the .7555 support with a break below .7523, sustaining downside pressures into Thursday.

Furthermore, the early April breach of .7487 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias for .7500; break here aims for .7469, Maybe down to the .7453/45 area.

l But above .7563 opens risk up to .7611 and .7625.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7283/79.

l Below here targets .7155/41/06 area, .7000 and .6971.

What Changes This? Above .7778 signals a bullish tone.

4 Hour Chart

4hour audusd chart


A probe lower on Wednesday, but only after an advance up through the .7039/45 resistance area, but whilst holding above initial support at .6995, we still see upside pressures and a bias higher into Thursday.

This activity has eased the immediate risk of an intermediate-term bearish shift, only confirmed below .6867.

For Today:

l We see an upside bias for .7053; break here aims for .7090.

l But below .6995 aims for .6973 and opens risk down towards .6910.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .6867.

Range Breakout Challenge

l Upside: Above .7403 aims higher for .7485, .7564 and .7744.

l Downside: Below .6867 sees risk lower for .6800, .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.

4 Hour Chart

4hour nzdusd chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.