Australian Dollar and Japanese Correct, but US Dollar Bear Theme Intact

Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen have both see modest corrective losses versus the US$ this week, but only in the context of significant gains for these currencies against the USD since the FOMC Meeting on 16th March.

Moreover, the AUDUSD strong Q1 bull trend leaves risks for a renewal of upside pressures into latter March and early April. In addition, the recent USDJPY break below February lows at 111.03 and 110.97, leaves bear pressures into early Q2.


A break lower Wednesday through support at .7530, to signal a mini top and shift the immediate bias to the downside Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7480; break here aims for .7411/06.
  • But above .7600 opens risk up to .7633.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The break above .7243 set a bull theme.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7738.
  • Above here targets.7849 and .8000.

What Changes This? Below .7106 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6971.

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Daily AUDUSD Chart



A still better bounce Wednesday to push above 112.00 and 112.21 resistances, and despite the stall at the next barrier at 112.96 (at 112.91), we see an upside correction bias again for Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see an upside bias for 112.91/96; break here aims towards 113.82.
  • But below 112.10 opens risk down to 111.37.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 110.33/00.
  • Below here targets 106.65/12.

What Changes This? Above 114.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 117.53.

Daily USDJPY Chart


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