- Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have undergone corrective setbacks in early July, questioning the sustainability of intermediate term bullish trends evident from June.
- However, recent recovery activity for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD has signalled likelihood for upside threats to continue into July.
- For AUDUSD the key upside trigger will now be to push above the .7712/19 area to challenge .7750
- For NZDUSD simply a break above the early July peak at .7346 would re-energise bullish threats.
AUDUSD – Upside bias
The Wednesday break above .7632 has switched the risk to the upside for Thursday.
Furthermore, this strong recovery activity has eased the July risk of a push below .7532, which would shift the intermediate term outlook from bullish to neutral.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias for .7683; break here aims for the .7712/19 area.
l But below .7639 opens risk down to .7584, maybe .7568.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l Whilst above .7532, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7750.
l Above here targets the .7835/49/78 area.
What Changes This? Below .7532 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7368.
4 Hour Chart
NZDUSD – Rebound bias
A firm rebound on Wednesday ahead of the next support at .7194 (from .7198), rejecting the Tuesday sell-off through various trendline and other supports, shifting risk back higher Thursday.
Furthermore, the mid-June push through .7247 set a bullish outlook into early July.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias for .7281; break here aims for 1.7310, maybe to the .7346 peak.
l But below .7220 opens risk down to .7198/94, maybe .7181
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7376.
l Above here targets .7403 and .7485.
What Changes This? Below .7003 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6814.
4 Hour Chart
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