EURUSD and GBPUSD Send Bearish, Intermediate-Term Signals


  • We last looked at the EURUSD and GBPUSD Forex rates here on 15th April add highlighted upside risks for EURUSD and a bear threat for GBPUSD.
  • A very strong US Dollar since then has seen the US currency race higher against practically all major currencies (barring the Japanese Yen), which has produced bullish, intermediate-term signals for the US$.
  • For both EURUSD and GBPUSD FX rates, this bullish USD sentiment, alongside some negative signals for both the Euro and Pound, has seen EURUSD and GBPUSD enter into more bearish scenarios on an intermediate-term basis.


EURUSD intermediate-term bear shift below key 1.1175

We have stressed in recent reports here and to our clients that “we see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1448 to 1.1175, BUT now with strong risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below 1.1175” and Wednesday’s plunge through here sets an intermediate-term bear trend.

Furthermore, this negative price action through 1.1175 has reinforced last Thursday’s significant selloff through various supports, to keep risks lower for Thursday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1139; break here aims for 1.1119 and 1.1081.
  • But above 1.1192 opens risk up to 1.1229.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1324 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.


Resistance and Support:

1.1192* 1.1229 1.1262** 1.1302/04 1.1324***
1.1139 1.1119** 1.1081 1.1039 1.1000**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


GBPUSD intermediate-term bear shift reinforced

A rebound failure on Wednesday from below initial resistance at 1.2978, from 12964, to reinforce Tuesday’s surrender of key 1.2947 support, to keep risks lower for Thursday.

The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2890; break here aims for 1.2830/25, maybe 1.2771.
  • But above 1.2964/78 opens risk up to 1.3019, maybe 1.3050.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2771.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2437, 1.2366 and 1.2109
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3196 is needed to shift straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.2964/78 1.3019* 1.3050* 1.3130/33 1.3196**
1.2890 1.2830/25 1.2800 1.2771*** 1.2743

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart



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