- When last looking at EURUSD and GBPUSD here in our 11th February report we highlighted EURUSD downside risks in a broader range and the questioning of the GBPUSD bull theme.
- Subsequently, Forex markets have experienced US$ weakness since last Friday 15th February, driven by anticipation of a positive outcome to the US-Sino trade negotiations (US Dollar had previously been strong as a safe haven).
- This has seen the EURUSD currency pair rebound from the bottom end of an intermediate-term range we see as 1.1214 to 1.1570, with the short-term risk back higher in the range.
- For the GBPUSD FX rate, a selloff of on fears of a No Deal Brexit through key 1.2831/29 supports switched the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to neutral, BUT the subsequent rebound on renewed anticipation of deal being forged, sees the risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift again(only signalled above 1.3218).
EURUSD bias higher
A positive consolidation tone on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s strong rebound from 1.1274 through resistance that had previously capped at 1.1341 and also to probe above 1.1360, sustaining short-term positive pressures and keeping risks higher for Thursday.
We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.1214 to 1.1570, BUT with risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below the lower level.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1371; break here aims for 1.1402, maybe 1.1434.
- But below 1.1301 opens risk down to 1.1274, maybe 1.1233.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1570 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1621, 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1268/62 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 108.39.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD risks higher
A firm rebound Wednesday through 1.3077 and to probe at 1.3103 resistance, from a new support established at 1.3011, building on Tuesday’s surge through 1.2959, 1.2996 and 1.3052 resistances, reinforcing a positive tone within the broader, intermediate-term range, leaving risks higher into Thursday,
The mid-February plunge through the key 1.2831/29 supports set an intermediate-term range we see as 1.2668 to 1.3218., BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.3218
- We see an upside bias for 1.3109; break here aims for 1.3169 and then maybe towards key 1.3218.
- But below 1.3011 opens risk down to 1.2960, possibly 1.2890.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2668 to 1.3218.
- Upside Risks: Above 3218 sets a bull trend to aim 1.3299 and 1.3473.
- Downside Risks: Below 2668 sees a bear trend to target 1.2437 and maybe towards 1.2000.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart