- In our 10th October report looking at NZDUSD and AUDUSD we highlighted rebound risks within the context of intermediate-term bear trends.
- The recovery and basing efforts across global equity markets since mid-August has encouraged a similar bottoming and firm rebound theme for NZDUSD and AUDUSD too.
- The growing threat we feel into latter October, is for intermediate-term bullish shifts; NZDUSD needs to overcome .6608 for such a signal, AUDUSD only switches to an intermediate-term bullish outlook above .7315.
NZDUSD Risks quickly flip back to the topside
Initially a Friday setback below new .6532 support, but then a strong rebound from above .6510 (from .6521) to overcome .6579/80 and .6602 resistances for a bullish outside day, just stalling at our key .6608 barrier, but setting risks higher for Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend BUT under threat, with a shift straight to bullish signalled above .6608.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for key .6608; break here aims for .6640/45 and maybe towards.6696/99.
- But below .6557/54 opens risk down to .6521.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6608 we see a downside risk for .6347.
- Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
- What Changes This? Above .6608 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| .6608*** | .6640/45* | .6696/99*** | .6721/27** | .6749 |
| .6557/54 | .6521* | .6510 | .6492** | .6479 |
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Positive tone intact
A further setback into Friday as we had expected below the .7102/.7097 support area, but then a strong intraday rebound to reject Thursday’s setback and resume positive pressures from the October recovery effort and very short-term bottoming activity, to flip risks back higher for Monday.
We see an intact, intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term bullish shift above .7315.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for .7159; break here aims for .7175, maybe towards .7203.
- But below .7087 opens risk down to .7066/64 and possibly towards the .7041/39 lows.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7315 we see a downside risk for .7000.
- Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
- What Changes This? Above .7315 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| .7159 | .7175 | .7203* | .7238/41** | .7268 |
| .7087 | .7066/64* | .7041/39** | .7000** | .6969 |
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart
