- In our last report on both NZDUSD and AUDUSD here, the intermediate-term bear trends from mid-April were being questioned, but at that point remained intact.
- However, since late May a broader shift to a global “risk on” environment across asset classes has seen the commodity currencies perform better versus the US Dollar, hence signalling conclusions for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD intermediate-term bear trends.
- For NZDUSD, the push above .7052 has already neutralised the intermediate-term bear theme, with a strong bias for a bullish shift above .7095.
- For AUDUSD a move above .7678 would see an end to the intermediate-term bear theme, placing the bias to the upside to challenge key .7813.
NZDUSD Intermediate-term shift to neutral; threat to key .7095 resistance
A Wednesday rebound from our .6995/94 support area, to probe above key .7052, to shift the intermediate-term view to a neutral, range (.6880 to .7095) AND set risk for a push above .7095 for an intermediate-term bullish view.
Furthermore, this price action leaves the bias higher for Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for .7060; break here aims for critical .7095, then maybe towards the .7157/62 area.
- But below .6995/94 opens risk down to 6959 and maybe opens risk down towards .6913.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6880 to .7095.
- Upside Risks: Above .7095 sets a bull trend to aim for .7273, .7395 and .7437.
- Downside Risks: Below .6880 sees a bear trend to target .6849, .6676/64 and .6343.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Intermediate-term risk of a shift to neutral and upside threats
A solid rebound Wednesday from our .7592 support, to reject Tuesday’s stall ahead of key resistance at .7678, shifting the bias back higher to this key resistance into Thursday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT the very strong risk is for a shift back to neutral above .7678 and even to bullish above .7813.
- We see an upside bias for critical .7678; break here aims for .7717 and maybe 7773.
- But below .7637 opens risk down to .7592.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7678 we see a downside risk for .7368/31.
- Lower targets would be .7155/41 and .7000.
- What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7813 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart