Both the New Zealand and Australian dollars have continued their tentative rebound efforts, which began in late November, which have resurfaced in early December, leaving risk of further corrective gains for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD into the first half of December.
However, previous bearish signals for both the NZD and AUD against the US Dollar, both producing significant multi-month topping structures, leaves the risk for a renewal of bigger picture bearish pressures into year-end and early 2017 for both NZDUSD and AUDUSD. Read more technical analysis for the forex market.
NZDUSD
A solid rebound from Tuesday through Wednesday from above support at .7098/93 up through .7161 (as we had indicated), to reinforce the two week mini up trend and leave the threat back to the upside into Thursday.
However, the mid-November breakdown through the multi-month “neckline” of the Head and Shoulders top from July, signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift, confirmed below .7030.
For Thursday/Friday:
- We see an upside bias for .7170; break here aims for .7198, maybe .7228.
- But below .7123 opens risk down to .7098/93 and maybe towards .7066, which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
- Below here targets .6800 and .6676/64.
What Changes This? Above .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7485.
2 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD
Another dip and another rebound on Wednesday, twice from support now established at .7413, head of a strong support area at .7408/7396, to push above minor resistance at .7475 and maintain upside threats into Thursday.
However, the mid-November break of .7438 completed a multiple peak topping pattern, which leaves an intermediate-term bearish theme.
For Thursday/Friday:
- We see an upside bias for .7498/7502; break here aims for .7542.
- But below .7438 aims for .7413/08 and opens risk down to .7396.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7284 and .7141.
- Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.
What Changes This? Above .7630 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.
2 Hour AUDUSD Chart
