The US Dollar Stays Intermediate-Term Bullish Versus Both JPY and CAD

usdjpy chart

  • A significant negative correction for USDJPY this week with a broader market “risk off” move across asset classes, driven by concerns regarding the US-North Korea Summit plus Emerging Markets weakness after the aggressive sell off on the Turkish Lira.
  • However, the US$ has sustained bullish pressures from the intermediate-term rally from mid-April against the Euro and GBP, and is trying to re-energize the bull theme against the Canadian Dollar.

USDJPY Bull theme damaged, but looking for a bounce

A plunge lower Wednesday with an overall “risk off” move, through multiple supports from mid-May (lowest being 109.79), but then a rebound from 109.54 and despite the damage inflicted to the bull trend, we look for a rebound Thursday.

The latter April push above 107.90 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • Whilst above 109.12 we see an upside bias for 110.55 and maybe towards 111.08.
  • But below 109.12 quickly targets the key 108.73/62 area.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.48.

  • Higher targets would be 113.75 and 114.73 maybe 115.50/63.
  • What Changes This? Below 108.62 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight from bullish to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

110.55 111.08* 111.40/48*** 111.88 112.06
109.30 109.12** 108.73* 108.62*** 108.52

4 Hour USDJPY Chart


usdjpy chart 

USDCAD Rebound bias

A push still higher Wednesday as expected through 1.2885 resistance, building on Tuesday’s solid bounce from above 1.2725 support (off of 1.2738), retaining upside pressures from the mid-May defence of the 1.2725 level, leaving risk for a further advance Thursday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside for 1.2916 and 1.2925; above opens risk up towards 1.2975 and 1.2998/1.3000.
  • But below 1.2803 targets 1.2738/2725 and maybe aims for 1.2714.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3347.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2536 shifts the outlook straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.2916 1.2925* 1.2975** 1.2998/3000** 1.3055*
1.2821 1.2803 1.2738/25** 1.2714 1.2629**

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart 

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