The US Dollar has reinforced its bullish outlook from a technical analysis standpoint, with the continuing advances across 10 currencies through the middle of November. The US currency was already experiencing a strong rally ahead of the US Presidential election, but the aggressive gains seen since the Trump victory leaves the threat for a still stronger US Dollar into late November and the end of 2016.
In particular, USDJPY has experienced an extremely strong, near exponential type rise. The USDJPY forecast is for further gains, after a push this week above ½ way point of the whole 2015-16 breakdown at 112.42, reinforcing the previous break above 107.49, which completed a multi-month basing pattern.
A surge to the topside on Wednesday from a new support platform built at 110.23, to overcome key targets we had flagged at 111.45 and 111.89, but to also overtake the 50% retracement of the entire 2015-16 sell-off at 112.42.
This not only maintains the short-term bullish theme into the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday (and into Friday), but also reinforces the intermediate-term bullish trend.
For Thursday/ Friday:
- We see an upside bias for 113.00; break above here aims for a minor target at 113.45, then a stronger resistance barrier at 113.80.
- But only all the way back below 112.03 shift to a more negative tone to open at risk to 111.19.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 113.80 and 114.88.
- Above here targets 115.59, 117.53 maybe as high as 120.00/10.
What Changes This? Below 108.51 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 105.99.
Daily USDJPY Chart