USD Bull Bias Versus Both AUD and NZD

Technical Analysis

The US Currency continued its upward path against most G10 currencies after the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday 18th May.

Moreover, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD sell offs on Wednesday have reinforced negative themes for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars against the Greenback into the second half of May.

With AUDUSD already in a bear trend, risk is growing for a more bearish shift for NZDUSD, triggered below .6664.


Despite the rebound through the RBA Minutes Tuesday, the stall back from the firm .7368/73 resistance area (from .7366) has allowed for a break to a new correction low below .72330 through the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, to keep the bias back lower Thursday.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7197 and .7160; break here aims for key support at .7106.
  • But above .7298 aims for .7366/73.

The early May break below key .7411 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7106.
  • Below here targets .7000, .6971, maybe .6825.

What Changes This? Above .7719 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7835.

Daily AUDUSD Chart



Another bullish failure Tuesday back from our .6848 resistance (from .6843) and again Wednesday back from .6801 to push through .6742 support and to leave negative pressures from the Shooting Star candlestick pattern last Thursday and the early May Double Top pattern to leave the bias lower again this Thursday.

Furthermore, the Double Top pattern below .6805 produced an intermediate-term shift to neutral, with ongoing risks for an intermediate-term shift to bearish below .6664.

For Thursday/ Friday:

  • We see a downside bias for .6712/11; break targets key .6664.
  • But above .6801 aims for .6843/48.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7054 and .6664.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7054 aims higher for .7232 and .7396/7413.
  • Downside: Below .6664 sees risk lower for .6572/41, .6418 and .6343.

Daily NZDUSD Chart


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