USD Mixed in G3

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar has displayed a recovery tone within G3 (the USD, EUR, JPY complex) over the past week, but this sets up a mixed outlook into the second half of April.

For USDJPY, despite the bounce effort, the failure pattern on Friday highlights downside risk into this week and for latter April.

However, the EURUSD sell off, points to further EURUSD losses early this week, with potential for a switch to a broader neutral theme for EURUSD into latter April.

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A bearish outside pattern Friday after a slowed ascent Thursday, stalling back from ahead of 109.90 resistance (from 109.73) to again set the bias back lower Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 108.55/50 and 108.10; break here aims for 107.60 and maybe 107.00.
  • But above 109.74 and 109.90 then aims for 110.25/30, maybe 110.83..

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to long term targets at 106.65/12.

What Changes This? Above 114.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 117.53.

Daily USDJPY Chart



A minor bounce Friday, but the Wednesday plunge through 1.1308 support and below 1.1240 support Thursday leaves a further downside correction bias for Monday.

For Monday/ Tuesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1231; break here aims for 1.1195, maybe 1.1142.
  • But above 1.1326 opens risk up to 1.1401.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: A strong rally through the 10/03 ECB Meeting through 1.1157 shifted the intermediate term outlook to bullish.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1495.
  • Above here targets 1.1714 and 1.1871.

What Changes This? Below 1.1142 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.1055.

Daily EURUSD Chart


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