USDCAD bear threat; USDJPY slightly negative

usdcad chart

  • When we last looked at USDCAD and USDJPY here on 17th January we highlighted USDCAD intermediate-term bearish risks and a USDJPY intermediate-term range theme.
  • These themes remain intact into today’s reports
  • The USDCAD Forex rate rejected the gradual corrective move higher from early January with a sharp selloff on Friday, which leaves the intermediate-term risks for a challenge to key 1.3157 and an intermediate-term shift to bearish below here.
  • The Canadian Dollar advance (USDCAD selloff) has been assisted by a gradual rise in the Oil price.
  • The USDJPY currency pair remains locked within a very short-term, narrow consolidation range with a broader, intermediate-term rage environment, but with the immediate risks to the downside.


USDCAD Risks shift back lower

A plunge Friday through numerous supports from the gradual January rebound effort as low as 1.3222, rejecting any positive forces from this move and flipping risks lower for Monday.

The early January plunge to push below the 1.3318 level set a neutral intermediate-term range we see as 1.3157 to 1.3665, BUT with skewed risks now towards the lower target.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3200 and 1.3176; break here aims for key 1.3157, maybe 1.3123.
  • But above 1.3269 opens risk up to 1.3332.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.3157 to 1.3665.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3665 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3777 and 1.4000/17.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.3157 sees a bear trend to target 1.3000, 1.2912 and 1.2784.

Resistance and Support:

1.3269 1.3332 1.3375* 1.3421 1.3474/88**
1.3200 1.3176* 1.3157*** 1.3123 1.3084

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad chart

USDJPY Holding onto a negative bias

Again, another modest setback Friday (as also seen Thursday) after Wednesday’s rebound stalled exactly at the top of our 109.89/99 resistance area, still holding onto negative pressures from the consolidation from mod-January, to just keep the risks lower into Monday.

The probe above 108.90 set an intermediate-term range, seen as 111.41 to 107.10.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 109.12; break here aims maybe towards 108.66, possibly even 108.16.
  • But above 109.99 aims for 110.48, maybe towards 110.94.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.41 to 107.10.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.41 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 107.10 sees a bear trend to target 72/55, 104.78/56 and 100.00.

Resistance and Support:

109.99** 110.48** 110.94 111.41*** 111.41***
109.12 108.66 108.16 107.74** 107.10***

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 usdjpy chart

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