- In our prior report here, we highlighted on the USDCAD resumptions of an intermediate-term bull trend after the bullish shift above 1.2944.
- A slight shift back towards more of a “risk on” outlook for global asset classes has seen USDJPY attempt to rebound, after a shift from intermediate-term bullish to bearish into latter May.
USDCAD Upside risks
A Friday advance and despite an intraday setback we still see upside forces from Thursday’s surge back higher, sustaining bullish forces that produced a new recovery high above 1.2998/1.300, keeping risks higher for Monday.
The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.3007; break here aims for 1.3047/55, maybe towards 1.3076.
- But below 1.2932 opens risk down to 1.2889, possibly towards 1.2814.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.
- Higher targets would be 1.3347.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2536 shifts the outlook straight to a bear trend.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3007 | 1.3047/55* | 1.3076 | 1.3125*** | 1.3155 |
| 1.2932 | 1.2889* | 1.2814** | 1.2777 | 1.2738/25** |
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
USDJPY Upside risks
As we had anticipated a strong recovery effort Friday through 109.11 and 109.47 resistances, building on the setbacks and rebounds seen Wednesday and Thursday, leaving a further recovery bias into Monday.
The late May surrender of 108.41 set the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, whilst below 109.83, BUT risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral above here.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 109.73, then quickly for key 109.83; above targets 110.33, possibilities towards 111.08
- But below 109.14 aims for 108.37/32 and maybe targets 108.08.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 106.85/59.
- Lower targets would be 105.63 and maybe 104.54.
- What Changes This? Above 109.83 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 111.08 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 109.73* | 109.83*** | 110.33* | 111.08*** | 111.43** |
| 109.14 | 108.37/32 | 108.08* | 107.52 | 106.85* |
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
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