USDCAD Still an Intermediate-Term Up Trend; USDJPY Set to Ease Bear Forces


  • In our prior report here, we highlighted on the USDCAD resumptions of an intermediate-term bull trend after the bullish shift above 1.2944.
  • A slight shift back towards more of a “risk on” outlook for global asset classes has seen USDJPY attempt to rebound, after a shift from intermediate-term bullish to bearish into latter May.


USDCAD Upside risks

A Friday advance and despite an intraday setback we still see upside forces from Thursday’s surge back higher, sustaining bullish forces that produced a new recovery high above 1.2998/1.300, keeping risks higher for Monday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3007; break here aims for 1.3047/55, maybe towards 1.3076.
  • But below 1.2932 opens risk down to 1.2889, possibly towards 1.2814.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3347.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2536 shifts the outlook straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3007 1.3047/55* 1.3076 1.3125*** 1.3155
1.2932 1.2889* 1.2814** 1.2777 1.2738/25**

4 Hour USDCAD Chart


USDJPY Upside risks

As we had anticipated a strong recovery effort Friday through 109.11 and 109.47 resistances, building on the setbacks and rebounds seen Wednesday and Thursday, leaving a further recovery bias into Monday.

The late May surrender of 108.41 set the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, whilst below 109.83, BUT risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral above here.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 109.73, then quickly for key 109.83; above targets 110.33, possibilities towards 111.08
  • But below 109.14 aims for 108.37/32 and maybe targets 108.08.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 106.85/59.

  • Lower targets would be 105.63 and maybe 104.54.
  • What Changes This? Above 109.83 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 111.08 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

109.73* 109.83*** 110.33* 111.08*** 111.43**
109.14 108.37/32 108.08* 107.52 106.85*

4 Hour USDJPY Chart


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